Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

       

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: 80

Thursday Night: Few clouds. Low: 46

 

 

 

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 62

 

 

 

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 38

 

Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High: 62 

 

 

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Discussion:    

Mad about the 80 degree temperatures in October? Thankfully we see a change as we round out our week. After the cold front moved through, mid-Missouri will try to enjoy one more day full of sunshine and above average temperatures before the cooler air arrives. Look for temperatures to fall in the low 50s tonight as the wind switches to the northwest, and tomorrow to not even reach the mid 60s.

 

Baker

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Forecasters: Sausen, Baker, Sallot

Date Issued: 10/06/2022 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

After the frontal passage, NAM was the model of choice used for our forecast period due to its handling of the 850mb temperatures. However, NAM and GFS were both used for tracking CAA from the north moving into our area, which ultimately is going to be the problem of the day. Temperatures will be dropping approximately 20 degrees over the next twenty four hours will be the main focus of this AFD, and how fast it will affect the mid-Missouri area.

The winds and divergence at 250mb were significant in the flow of cold air from the north. As a low pressure system tracks off to the northeast, winds switch to a west-northwesterly component. This, combined with the polar jet stream shifting south, will bring cooler air from the north. This polar jet will serve as the driving mechanism for CAA in the upper levels.

Vorticity combined with a shortwave tracking eastward would be the most significant aspect of the 500mb level. Vorticity levels are significant Friday afternoon in association with the shortwave. Winds shift from a northwesterly component to a westerly component through the range of the forecast.

The 700mb-relative humidity map shows moisture entering the area around 19Z this afternoon, when compared with a sounding for this afternoon, the 700mb layer seems to be saturated, furthering the thought of clouds rolling in this afternoon. The moisture then retreats Saturday 00Z, leaving high pressure in its path. 

As the cold front has already moved through, the winds will shift from a WSW to a WNW flow throughout the day, allowing for the polar jet to retreat south. This will serve as the forcing mechanism of the cooler, drier air. This is evident on the 1000mb-500mb thickness map cross correlated with MSLP. The solonoids track due south towards mid-Missouri and arrive Friday 00Z. This will allow 850mb to cool to 0 degrees C, further indicating the cold air advection. 

 

-Sausen & Baker

 

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

        

  

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 54

 

 

 

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: 80

Thursday Night: Few clouds. Low: 46

 

 

 

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 62

 

 

 

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 38

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:    

Mad about the 80 degree temperatures in October? Thankfully we see a change as we round out our week. A low pressure system exits mid-Missouri on Thursday creating some cloudy skies. Then moving into Friday, Columbia sees a major temperature drop down into the low 60s as cold air surges into our region from the north. While you might need a jacket, don’t worry about an umbrella, the temperature drop isn’t expected to come with any rain.

 

Cochran

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Forecasters: Cochran, Jones, Smith

Date Issued: 10/05/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

An upper-level low pressure system moves eastward out of the CWA causing scattered clouds Thursday. At this time there is also a wind shift at the surface due to a high-pressure system that will drastically decrease our temperatures. The NAM was used to create this forecast due to its more accurate representation of pressure systems and better handling of moisture in the southwest.  

In the upper levels a low-pressure system starting over Iowa moves eastward until it is swept up into the dominating trough residing over Canada. This will be happening Wednesday afternoon and lasting until Friday morning. 500mb maps show a ball of vorticity coupled with the low-pressure system exiting the region with the vort max tracking across northeastern MO. A shortwave trough will follow in its wake.  

700mb map of heights and relative humidity show moisture moving in and out of the area over the next 3 days following the exiting trough. 850mb map of heights and RH show moisture moving in and out of the region following the LPS. 

The surface map shows a high-pressure system becoming the predominant feature when it starts to move through mid-Missouri Thursday evening. With this HPS comes a shift in our westerly winds bringing them more from the north which will account for our lower temperatures over the weekend. 

Soundings show the likeliness of mid-level clouds during the day on Thursday and the chance for some mid-level clouds Thursday night into Friday morning. But otherwise, a dry atmosphere. 

Temperature highs will range in the 80’s before dropping into the 60’s on Friday whereas lows will go from the 50’s going down to the upper 30’s Friday evening.

-Cochran, Jones, Smith

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

        

     

Wednesday: Cloudy. High 82

 

 

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 56

 

 

 

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: 80

Thursday Night: Few clouds. Low: 46

 

 

 

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 58

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:    

Clouds have moved into the region, but temperatures will remain in the upper 70s for Wednesday and Thursday before a significant cool down later this week. While a cold front will pass through the region Wednesday night, the cooler air lags behind, not arriving until Friday when high temperatures will only reach the upper 50s. A stray shower can't be ruled out Wednesday as light rain ahead of the cold front has fallen across far northern Missouri and southern Iowa.

 

- Travis

 

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Forecasters: Russell, Shaw, Travis

Date Issued: 10/05/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

Although today and tomorrow will feature warm, slightly above average temperatures, a big cool-down is expected by the end of the week. An area of low pressure over IA will maneuver a cold front through MO this afternoon into the overnight, bringing with it a cloudy sky and isolated light showers. High pressure builds into the region by Friday as clouds exit. The GFS was preferred over the NAM due to its handling of moisture in the boundary layer.

In the upper-levels, low pressure is moving SE through southern IA, where more widespread precipitation is occurring. As it moves east Thursday night, it will begin to break down and become absorbed into the upper-level flow. 

Abundant mid-level moisture and vorticity associated with the low and corresponding cold front is moving through MO today, thus the increased cloud cover this morning. Strong cold air advection and an area of high pressure will succeed the frontal passage, especially in the overnight hours on Thursday. This will contribute to the cooler temperatures and decreasing clouds on Friday. Although a weak shortwave is poised northwest of the forecast area at the end of the period (something worth watching for future shifts), largely zonal flow should keep conditions steady through the start of the weekend. 

As has been noted for the past... too many days, model soundings show very little in the way of near-surface and surface moisture. This wedge of dry air should limit most precipitation from reaching the ground Wednesday, though an isolated light shower cannot be completely ruled out given the reflectivity echoes observed by KEAX to the west of the forecast area. Even drier and cooler conditions will work their way south with the passage of the cold front, leading to below-average temperatures by Friday.

- Shaw

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

        

     

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 50

 

 

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 82

 

 

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 56

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High: 80

 

 

 

Thursday Night: Mostly Clear. Low 46

 

 

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Discussion:    

The stretch of dry and warm weather continues through the next couple of days. Calm weather and a light southerly wind will help the warm up Wednesday into the low 80s. Clouds will be on the increase, however, during the day Wednesday with partly cloudy conditions expected. Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday in regards to temperatures except more sunshine is anticipated. Say goodbye to mornings in the 50s this week as a colder morning on Friday will dip temperatures into the 40s.

 

-Simmons

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Forecasters: Meier, Macko, Simmons

Date Issued: 10/04/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

For this forecast period, a blend of the NAM12 and GFS20 models were used to pinpoint certain features associated with a long and shortwave trough on our heels. GFS and NAM soundings were also used for temperature forecasting. As we shift our focus into the next couple of days, we will watch an upper-level trough to our northwest and how it will affect moisture aloft and temperatures.

Currently, Mid-Missouri is under a ridge with a strong low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and a low situated up in the Dakotas. The blocking pattern that the central CONUS has been experiencing will begin to break down over the next couple of days as the low off the Eastern Seaboard slides away. This will make way for the shortwave trough to sink down into the upper-Midwest. It is expected to reach our area around 2100Z on Wednesday before carrying off east. Our attention next turns to a long-wave trough dropping down from Canada through the Great Lakes Region Thursday night into Friday.

At the mid-levels, analysis showed weak vorticity associated with the shortwave trough. However, strong vorticity was evident in northern Missouri and in Iowa. Consequently, 700-mb analysis shows moisture and higher relative humidity values starting around 1200Z for our area indicating some clouds forming during the day Wednesday. The moisture fades away with clearing expected overnight Wednesday. Thursday will have more sunshine as moisture doesn't appear to be very ample aloft. 

Toward the lower levels of the atmosphere, partly cloudy conditions are supported with Skew-T soundings showing some saturation throughout the day Wednesday. A cold front is apparent Thursday overnight with 850-mb moisture getting choked off around 0600Z Friday. The NAM and GFS are both in agreement that cold air advection will slowly start to invade from the north with 1000-500 mb thickness verifying just that. That is why we expect Friday morning to be colder than what we've been experiencing so far this week.

Although we don't expect any precipitation Wednesday with the clouds, the next forecast shift should monitor colder temperatures Friday and Friday night for frost potential.

-Simmons

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

        

     

 

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High: 77

     

  

 

Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 50

 

 

       

 

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 82

 

      

 

 

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 56

     

 

    

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High: 80

 

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Discussion:    

It looks like the fall season is here to stay! Today will bring sunshine with a few clouds rolling in this afternoon, expect temperatures to reach the upper 70s. Tonight, though, lack of cloud cover will allow temperatures to cool down into the low 50s. A high pressure system to our south will push in warmer temperatures on Wednesday, we should see temperatures jump into the low 80s. Look for clouds to increase as a cold front is heading our way. Cloud cover will insulate our area Wednesday night keeping our overnight lows in the mid 50s.

 

-Ritsema

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Forecasters: Clark, Baker, Ritsema

Date Issued: 10/04/2022 9:30 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

Both the NAM and the GFS 12z model runs were used; however, due to temperature observations, upper level forcing, and timing, this forecast leaned more toward the GFS. Looking into the end of the forecasting period, a cold front will push through the CWA, but timing of cold air advection seems to lag behind the front by a significant amount of time.  

Currently, we are situated under an upper level ridge as evident on the 250mb map. High pressure has begun to decay as a low pressure system situated over South Dakota moves into the Midwest. A wind shift from the northeast to  the southeast occurs at 18z as the 850mb high pressure system tracks northeast throughout the day today. 

Tomorrow morning around 15z, moisture will begin to flow into the CWA ahead of the frontal system. Evident on the 850mb map the low level jet over the central plains will advect warm, moist air into the CWA. A sounding was further analyzed to pinpoint arrival and height of cloud cover. Low dew point depressions at the 700mb and 500mb heights show that clouds begin to form between 8z and 11z. Those clouds persist throughout Wednesday and decay slightly Thursday. 

Late Wednesday night at 3z and early Thursday morning the cold front pushes through the CWA which can be seen with wind shifts from the west to northwest and moisture advection on the 850mb map. Although the front passes through in the morning, temperature advection runs behind due to lack of forcing from the polar jet. Though, Thursday afternoon a polar jet streak on the 250mb map produces enough forcing to bring in colder temperatures. This is evident using the timing of solenoids indicating the cold air moving into mid-Missouri will arrive late Thursday evening. 

 According to soundings, the frontal passage appears to be dry with PWat values not even reaching an inch. This leads to the belief that little to no rain will fall in the CWA along this front. What rain will be able to make it to the ground will equate to .01 inches north of I-70. 

 

 

-Ritsema

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

        

     

 

Monday Night: Clear. Low: 48

     

  

 

Tuesday: Sunny. High:80

 

 

       

 

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 52 

 

      

 

 

Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 82 

     

 

    

Wednesday Night: Party Cloudy. Low: 55

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:    

More fall weather is expected for Columbia this week. Mornings will be cool enough for a sweatshit but afternoons will be warm enough for t-shirts.

 

-Herion

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Forecasters: Cook, Herion, Kobielusz

Date Issued: 10/03/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

This week is going to start off very dry and very clear. Hurricane Ian is still hanging out off the east coast of the CONUS, which has trapped an area of high pressure over the Midwest. This has led to a long streak of clear days and nights, and will continue to keep the sky conditions clear for the beginning part of the week. We used the GFS model as the main source for this forecast. 

 

The GFS model is showing some movement by Ian around early afternoon Wednesday, allowing an upper level low to push down from Montana into the Iowa region. this will bring through an upper level front through our area in the late morning to early afternoon on Wednesday. Ahead of this front, the mid level moisture values will increase, likely leading to cloud cover. This is supported by model soundings for late Tuesday night to Wednesday afternoon, showing mid level saturation around 500mb and 700mb, suggesting cloud cover at both levels. as the front passes, moisture values will decrease, and the cloud cover will diminish as we get later into Wednesday afternoon, into Wednesday night.

-Cook

 

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

         

   

Monday: Sunny. High: 79

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 49

     

  

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 79

 

 

 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 52

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 80

 

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

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Discussion:    

A continuation of our calm, seasonable weather is in store as the week begins. Stable, comfortable highs are expected the next few afternoons, while a light jacket might be appropriate as you begin your mornings.

 

-Schneringer

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Forecasters: Samson, Schneringer, Travis

Date Issued: 10/03/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The blocked high over eastern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley projects to progress this week as the remnants of Ian are caught up in upper level flow and dragged downstream. A blend of the NAM and GFS were used for this forecast, and both have slightly different progressions of the slowly degrading high and following low pressure system, with the GFS being slightly more aggressive with its speed and amplitude. This discrepancy in the development of the low serves to inject most of the uncertainty into this forecast. 

The aforementioned low can be placed over the Montana-Alberta border via upper-level WV imagery, with a high pressure system slowly sliding southwards over the Great Lakes and into the Rust Belt. Satellite imagery also depicts a jet originating in northeast Mexico roughly tracing the Gulf Coast as it blows westward. This jet is projected to strengthen over the next few days as it and the upper low over the VA/MD coast interact. The ridge over the forecast region will follow behind as that system is pushed farther east. The surface low associated with the upper level trough will push southeast from the Dakotas and through central Iowa. At this time, little moisture is forecast for our region, so the resulting frontal passage this system brings is currently not expected to bring any precipitation. Despite that, soundings from the NAM and GFS depict moderate to ample forcing should the prognostication of moisture values change in the next few days. The quiet forecast period is represented by stable, comfortable high temperatures, but the expected cold front passage beyond our time frame will act to curb those as the week closes.

-Schneringer