Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night: Clouds return with showers and storms after midnight. Low: 49

Friday: Soggy with rain throughout the day. High: 54

Friday Night: Rain ending late evening. Low: 38

Saturday: Clouds exit early. High: 59

 

Saturday Night: Clear and calm. Low: 38

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Discussion:
It’ll be a soggy end to St. Patty’s Day with a chance for showers and storms overnight. Evening plans will still be good to go though, with rain holding off until near midnight. A few storms will be possible tonight as well, but conditions won’t be favorable in our region for a severe threat. Rain will persist throughout the day on Friday before finally tapering off in the evening. Rainfall totals will be just shy of 1”. A sun-filled sky will greet Mid-MO by late afternoon Saturday, and seasonable conditions are in store for the weekend.
-Splater

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Forecasters: Splater, Noblitt, Vochatzer

Date Issued: 3/17/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

For our forecast, both the GFS20 and NAM40 were consulted due to their close projection of the MSLP across the CONUS, as well as the location of a LPS near central Texas that will impact our weather over the next few days, as well as a HPS over eastern Idaho. Additionally, both the SREF and GEFS plumes were reasonably close to the current temperature at Sanborn, with the GEFS plumes running a few degrees colder. As such, the SREF and GEFS plumes were combined with the NBM for temperature forecasting, while GFS and NAM soundings were used for cloud cover. The HRRR was referenced for precipitation guidance alongside the NBM.

Looking at the 300mb plot of winds, heights, and divergence, we see a very dynamic set up as a LPS located over the Texas Panhandle pushes east into Oklahoma. This low disrupts the jet streaks as they attempt to couple, creating a massive wall of divergence ahead of the low as it moves. This divergence will reside over Missouri from 0Z Friday through 18Z Friday as the low advances up into Central Missouri at this time. The low will then travel off to our northeast late Friday night. After this we remain in a zonal flow until very early Sunday morning when a ridge to our west forces its way into the Mississippi Valley.

Next, the 500mb plot of winds, heights, and vorticity helps to illustrate our conditions as a massive amount of circulation surrounds the low of Texas. This large area of vorticity will proceed into Missouri around midnight Thursday, coinciding with the divergence seen on the previous layer. Strong bands of circulation will remain over the Middle Mississippi Valley through the late morning Saturday before the ridge begins to progress into the region.

The 700mb plot of winds, heights, RH, and omega shows a large batch of moisture associated with the low as it moves into Missouri 3Z Friday. The presence of lift as indicated by the omega values as well as everything seen in the previous layers supports the development of significant cloud cover, as well as the chance of precipitation throughout the event. This moisture lasts through 12Z Saturday, indicating a clearing of the sky during the time period. Following this no other sources of moisture make it into our region for the remainder of the forecasting period.

Ending with the 850mb plot of winds, heights, temperatures, and dewpoints shows some slight warming ahead of the low with strong southerly winds. As the low advances to our northeast, the trailing cold front will sweep across Columbia bringing our winds out of the northwest. However, this is short-lived as our winds change to the west with the progression of the ridge from the west. Observing the MSLP and 1000-500mb thickness plots shows some CAA occurring after the low’s passage, which will see our temperatures cool off.

Soundings indicate significant cloud cover over Columbia early Friday morning into early Saturday morning. Indices and CAPE point towards precipitation but no threat of severe weather. Total anticipated precipitation is around 0.75" of rain.

Future forecasters should pay attention to a LPS moving across Southwest CONUS for potential of storm development across the Gulf Coast and into our area.

-Noblitt

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday Night: Increasing cloudiness. Low: 49

 

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: 75

 

Thursday Night: Cloudy with rain beginning after midnight. Low: 49

 

Friday: Cloudy with rain throughout the day. High: 50

 

Friday Night: Cloudy, rain ending before midnight. Low: 35

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Discussion:

Students could be seen filling the quad today at Mizzou as Wednesday saw sunshine and spring-like temperatures. This clear sky will slowly see increased cloud cover overnight due to increased moisture in Columbia. St. Patrick’s Day on Thursday will see temperatures in the 70s brought into the state by southerly winds. Clouds will increase Thursday evening as a low pressure system moves east from Colorado. This system, with ample moisture and circulation, will impact Missouri Thursday night with rainfall expected after midnight. Mizzou’s campus will continue to see rain throughout the day Friday. If you will be out of the house, be sure to grab your umbrella or a raincoat. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day. The high of 50 will be reached around 6am, afternoon temperatures will be in the upper to mid 40s. Rain accumulation is expected to be around 1 inch.

-Heienickle

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Forecasters: Meyer, Heienickle, Orr

Date Issued: 3/16/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

For this forecast, the NAM was used over the GFS. Although the two models were remarkably similar in current temperatures as of 21Z Wednesday afternoon, the NAM had a better handle on moisture and placement of the low pressure system over the deep south. This forecast deals with the rain chances on Friday along with the falling temperatures associated with a cold front. 

Mid-MO is between two troughs at the 300-mb level. The leading trough is centered over the southeastern United States, placing Missouri in westerly flow at the upper level. The second trough is over the Rocky Mountains, moving eastward into the central Plains by Thursday. As that trough begins to move, upper level winds turn out of the southwest on Thursday. Divergence at the upper level arrives in central Missouri after 05Z Friday but moves away by 12Z Friday. Once the trough moves away, Missouri returns to a westerly flow. 

Warm Air Advection is present over Missouri and the southern U.S. through the day on Thursday into Friday morning ahead of the second trough. Temperatures on Thursday will be well above the climatological average for mid-March. 

Large amounts of circulation enter Mid-MO after 09Z Friday with the aforementioned trough moving overhead. This, along with the high amounts of relative humidity at the same time, suggest the likelihood of precipitation with this trough throughout the day on Friday. Both the vorticity and the higher RH amounts hold through the end of the forecast period. 

NAM soundings suggest the precipitation that will fall will remain rain. Precipitable water values hover around 0.9" which is above the climatological value in March in Missouri, suggesting the potential for some heavier rain. The high pwat value, combined with the duration of the rain on Friday suggests rain amounts could be around 1". This is supported by the NBM, which shows a 44% chance of Columbia receiving at least an inch of rain. 

Soundings from the NAM also support some CAPE values over Missouri between 100-500 J/kg which brings the possibility of some thunder with the rain. Severe chances are minimal as CAPE amounts will be too low and none of the other severe weather ingredients will be present. 

After the front moves through Friday morning, temperatures will begin to fall throughout the day on Friday. By 06Z Saturday, temperatures will fall into the mid-30s for the overnight low. As the temperature falls, much of the atmosphere will be above freezing but soundings keep a warm layer around the 850mb. The warm layer and above freezing surface temperatures keep any wintry precipitation away Friday night into Saturday. Any precipitation should be moving out of central Missouri by 12Z Saturday. 

-Meyer

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: 77

 

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 49

 

Thursday: Building clouds. High: 73

 

Thursday Night: Rain beginning after midnight. Low: 45 

 

Friday: Rain. High: 50

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Discussion:

Take the opportunity to get outside these next few days as rain will return by the end of this week. Another day of spring-like temperatures is on the way for mid-Missouri! Temperatures today will be almost 20 degrees above average for this time of year. This streak of above average temperatures will soon come to a halt on Friday as a result of a passing cold front Thursday evening. This cold front will cause our temperatures to drop throughout the day on Friday and bring us our next chance for rain. Rain is expected to begin just after midnight on Friday and continue throughout the day. Rain could be heavy at times, but total accumulations will be less than an inch.

-Kobielusz

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Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard

Date Issued: 3/16/2022 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

Thursday and Friday will likely bring rain to the mid-Missouri region as an area of low pressure currently situated over the central Rockies tracks eastward over the Great Plains. Thus, selecting the deterministic model that was best modeling this area of low pressure was pivotal. GFS successfully modeled the placement of the low over the Colorado-Utah border while the NAM pushed it further south. For this reason, the GFS 06Z run was chosen as the deterministic model for the forecast period ending late Friday. The NBM was also used to help resolve temperatures considering the deterministic models have had a strong cold bias as of late.

The Polar Jet follows a meridional flow pattern through late Saturday. The Central Plains remain outside of the Polar Jet's realm of influence until late Thursday afternoon. By this point in time, a deep upper-level, negatively-tilted trough has presented itself, with the trough axis extending from North Dakota south into Oklahoma. This trough will pass through mid-Missouri before a more zonal flow is established.

Virtually no circulation can be found over mid-Missouri before 00Z on Friday. In the hours before this time, increased circulation associated with the low pressure system pushes up against the Kansas-Missouri border. By 06Z Friday, significant vorticity is expected over the state of Missouri. This vorticity will persist into the weekend but after having weakened during the afternoon hours on Friday.

Initially dry, the 700-mb level will see an increase in moisture late Thursday afternoon, a result of a shift to SSW flow. Here moisture shall remain through late Friday. Large, positive values of vertical velocity associated with the low pressure system are found over Missouri beginning late Thursday. This lifting mechanism will help aid in the development of rain showers. This forcing will dissipate late Friday.

A weak low-level jet with southerly flow is expected to form to the south of Missouri ahead of the low pressure system around 06Z on Friday, introducing additional moisture an already near-saturated 850mb level. At the same time, a stronger low-level jet to the east of the low pressure system will beginning pulling cold air from the north into western Kansas and Oklahoma. This second low-level jet weakens after moving into Missouri, but this northerly flow will result in cooler temperatures heading into the weekend.

GFS forecasted soundings were used to further examine the moisture depth. A thin, moist layer above 850mb in addition to the presence of negative Omega may result in some low-level cloud cover throughout the day on Wednesday. A slight westward shift in winds at this level will cut off moisture overnight into Thursday before southerly flow dominates once again, resulting in a return to cloudiness on Thursday. It is not until after 06Z on Friday that significant moisture depth and quality is achieved. Moreover, as the area of low pressure moves over mid-Missouri, considerable low-level convergence is apparent, leading to more lift needed for precipitation. Surface convergence becomes less notable heading into the early morning hours on Friday but is still present nonetheless. The upper levels of the atmosphere will gradually begin to dry out throughout Friday, but moisture remains prevalent between 700mb and the surface. Since there is still a well-defined moist layer and lift, precipitation will likely continue heading into the afternoon on Friday. Consequently, the largest contribution to total precipitation accumulations will occur between 06Z and 18Z on Friday. Total rainfall accumulations are expected to be just under 1". 

- Macko

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 48

 

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 75

 

Wednesday Night: Scattered Clouds. Low: 49

 

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. Afternoon showers. High: 69  

 

Thursday Night: Rain overnight. Low: 42

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Discussion:

After a big cool down last week, temperatures in Mid-Missouri are on an upward trend this week. Temperatures will soar into the upper 60s and lower 70s for Wednesday and Thursday as plenty of sunshine and a breezy southerly wind dominate the weather pattern. The end of the week is likely to be cooler and wetter as an approaching cold front and low pressure brings the potential for rain. The cold front is expected to pass around mid day on Thursday with the best chances for precipitation late and overnight on Thursday. Conditions after the passage of the front are expected to be cooler on Friday.

-Duff

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Forecasters: Alexander, Duff, Orr.

Date Issued: 3/15/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

The Ides of March have brought nice weather upon mid-Missouri. Now is the perfect time to get out and warm up from the cold and wet winter that we have seen over the past few months. This pattern of nice weather will continue to Thursday when a low pressure system from Colorado will bring in rain and cooler temperatures Thursday afternoon and night. For this forecast, we went with the NAM as it has a better handle on the mid and upper-level conditions over the northern Rockies. Since that is where our next weather system will be coming from, it’s best we pay close attention to it. NBM was also used to help determine air temperatures.

Currently there is a low pressure system over Mississippi that is slowly heading east. It did cause some severe weather in the south yesterday, but it will not cause any major weather problems for us up here in Missouri. This low pressure system has put some moisture in the mid-levels of the atmosphere over our heads. Now the winds at those levels are stagnating, this moisture will stick around until the next low pressure system forces it out.

That next low pressure system will begin slowly forming overnight tonight in Colorado. It will take the moisture out of the northern Rockies and start quickly moving eastward Wednesday night. Once it starts moving, it will begin sucking up warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico via the LLJ. We will see the first effects of this low pressure system mid-morning Thursday as the moisture from the Rockies will enter the region from the northwest. Early afternoon Thursday, the warm, moist gulf air will begin entering mid-Missouri from the southwest. A cold front connected to this low pressure system is expected to pass over us around 18Z on Thursday. Between the cold front and the WAA, mid-level circulation which will increase in intensity as we move into the overnight hours, helping rain showers form. The highest CAPE values we have seen for this system are less than 200 J/kg, so no strong convective storm development is expected. There are significant amounts of Omega after midnight Friday morning. At 850mb, Omega projections are around -10 and at 500mb values near -20. These forcing values will lead to more intense rainfall after midnight.

A point of interest in our forecast is the 250mb jet stream. West of the Rockies, the polar jet stream is making a deep trough early in the week and part of the stream gets broken off and travels to the east on the south side of the Rockies. This jet streak seems to get pushed northeast via the sub-tropical jet and may couple with the polar jet stream Thursday evening over southern Missouri. There is uncertainty where the streak and the stream will meet, or if they even will couple, but if they do it could increase the intensity of the rainfall over southern and eastern Missouri.

Rain showers will begin afternoon on Thursday and continue through Thursday night and likely into Friday morning as well. Precipitation total for Thursday will be less than .25 inch and we could pick up around half an inch of rain Thursday night. Impacts of this rain will lead to a rainy commute Thursday evening and Friday morning, as well as the melting of most of the remaining snow piles. The next forecast shift should keep an eye on precipitation totals and if the jet streak and stream decide to couple up.

--Alexander

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Tuesday: Mostly Clear. High: 67

 

Tuesday Night: Few Clouds. Low: 46

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 72

 

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 49

 

Thursday: Scattered Clouds. High: 69

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Discussion:

It will be a great day for baseball as Saint Louis University comes to town to take on Mizzou. Tuesday's high will reach the mid-60s by first pitch at 4pm. The sky will see fewer clouds and more sun until Thursday evening as clouds build in ahead of a low-pressure system that will bring with it rain by the end of the week. Temperatures will stay springlike as Wednesday will peak in the lower 70s. The same low-pressure system will knock these temperatures down significantly for Friday.

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Forecasters: Cade, Travis

Date Issued: 3/15/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

Spring is in the air as we move past pi day and towards St. Patrick's day! Seasonable temperatures are in store for the first half of the week before showers roll into the area Thursday night into Friday. For this forecast, GFS was the main model used. NAM and GFS were performing similarly, but GFS seemed to have a better hold on the LPS that is currently moving through Arkansas. The NBM was also used to aid in temperature forecasting.

Divergence is scarce at 250 mb over the Midwest for the majority of this forecast period. There is a strong upper level low over Arkansas, but as it begins to close off, it makes it way over to the East, not having much effect on Missouri. Thursday night into Friday is when divergence the jet stream makes it's way over the middle Mississippi river valley, alluding to the fact that some sort of precipitation is possible for Friday. 

There's a similar story at the 500-mb level, with not much to see in terms of vorticity besides the LPS over Arkansas and the uptick Thursday night into Friday. There is weak ridging that appears over the Midwest Wednesday, which appears in the lower levels as well. 

Looking at relative humidity, the 700-mb level doesn't have much to offer for Missouri until we reach Thursday night into Friday. This is when precipitation is likely to occur, since this is when divergence aloft, vorticity, and moisture all appear. 

In addition to that, a weak LLJ over the Midwest at 850 mb gives the atmosphere the opportunity to moisten up even more. However, looking at moisture transport vectors reveals that this isn't very effective. Besides that, a LPS appears to move over the middle Mississippi river valley Friday into the weekend. 

At the surface, this low still appears on Friday, and before that predominantly southern winds bring mild temperatures at the surface, which is what gives us that lovely spring feel. Looking at soundings, there doesn't appear to be much in terms of moisture until Thursday night, partially due to that slight ridging that appears in the lower levels. Thursday night is when things finally start to get interesting as the atmosphere moistens up. Past that moisture; however, things are honestly quite boring. As of right now, there isn't much in terms of CAPE or even p-watts, meaning that rumbles of thunder aren't very likely, and neither is the chance for a significant rain event. So, while scattered showers are definitely possible, it doesn't appear as if it will be more than just some spotty rain. Future forecasting shifts will want to keep an eye on this system to look at timing and if anything changes. Have a great day! 

 

-Cade

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night:  Cloudy with a slight chance for showers. Low: 45

 

Tuesday: Decreasing clouds. High: 65

Tuesday Night: Few clouds. Low: 46

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 72

 

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 49

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

 It appears that spring has finally arrived and it has brought with it warm, pleasant conditions. A low-pressure system will move eastward and to the south of Missouri on Monday night. There is a chance for an isolated shower as this system passes with trace amounts of precipitation expected. Once the showers and clouds have moved over, there will be plenty of sunshine during the first half of the week. Temperatures will remain pleasantly warm as they reach into the upper-60s and lower-70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Nighttime temperatures will not be terribly cold as they dip into the mid- to upper-40s. The next few days would be the perfect time to go outside and enjoy the nice weather while it lasts.

- Millsap

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Forecasters: McMullen, Millsap, Travis

Date Issued: 3/14/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

For this forecast, multiple models were utilized. The GFS and the NAM were not in agreement regarding current surface temperatures, with the GFS running several degrees cooler than the observed temperatures and the NAM being spot on. However, the GFS had a better handling on the LPS over the Southern Plains. Therefore, both the GFS and NAM were used for upper-level air analysis and soundings. The RAP and HRRR were also applied to forecast the possible precipitation Monday night.

 

The problem of the forecast period, from Monday night through Wednesday night, are the above average temperatures and the chance for precipitation tonight. 

The main instigator for this forecast can be seen beginning at the 250-mb plot of heights, winds, and divergence. A LPS is currently located over the Southern Plains and will be tracking around Missouri's southern border. It will traverse SE through Kansas until 12Z Tuesday, when it begins to move eastward across Arkansas, eventually migrating NE through the SE CONUS and beyond by 12Z Wednesday. Mid-Missouri will see some spotty areas of upper-level divergence Monday night and Tuesday morning, possibly contributing to the chance for showers Monday night.

While analyzing the previously-mentioned LPS at the 500-mb plot of heights and vorticity, it can be seen that it follows relatively the same path. Some weak and spotty areas of circulation from the northern tip of the LPS will clip Columbia Monday night, which also will add to the chance for showers that night. Most of the circulation swirling around the LPS will remain south of Missouri for Monday night, covering eastern TX, OK, AR, and LA. After the LPS passes to the east, no vorticity will cross Columbia for the rest of the forecast period. 

On the 700-mb plot of heights and relative humidity, a small band of moisture passes through central MO Monday afternoon. However, after that moisture, Mid-Missouri will remain dry at 700 mb for the remainder of the forecast period. The moisture associated with the LPS stays SE of Columbia during its passage.

Southwesterly winds dominate the lower-Mississippi Valley on Monday on the 850-mb plot of heights, winds, and temperature. These winds, associated with a LLJ, have helped to keep Columbia's temperatures above average. Winds will shift to the WSW with the passage of the LPS through AR about 12Z Tuesday, but will return to SW/SSW by 6Z Wednesday. Looking the plot of MSLP and 1000-500-mb thickness, the previously-mentioned LPS tracks slightly further south than in the upper levels, closer the Gulf Coast. Mid-Missouri will see weak SW/SSW for the rest of the forecast period, following the crossing of the LPS through Arkansas Monday Night.

GFS and NAM soundings were utilized for forecasting sky conditions. There is saturation at the lower levels Monday night, suggesting clouds and possible showers. Low CAPE values indicate that no severe weather is expected. The RAP and HRRR were also examined to further pinpoint the possibility of showers Monday night, however they showed very spotty showers, making it difficult to be certain of precipitation Monday night. Soundings also indicated little to no saturation for the rest of the forecast period, forecasting only some clouds through Wednesday Night. Trace amounts of QPF are expected for the rest of the forecast period. 

 

Future forecasters should look to the upper-level trough developing over the western CONUS on Thursday.

-McMullen

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday: Becoming partly cloudy. High: 62

Monday Night: Cloudy with chance of rain. Low: 45

 

Tuesday: Clouds clear out for clear conditions. High: 65

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 46

 

Wednesday:Sunny. High: 70

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Has spring finally arrived? Above average temperatures are expected for the beginning of the week for central Missouri. A low pressure system will push east Monday afternoon and track south of the Missouri border. This system will track in high level clouds Monday afternoon into overnight. A chance of rain is possible overnight with trace amounts falling. However, as the system pushes east, clouds do not stick around long as they move out of the mid-Missouri area by Tuesday mid-morning. A clear sky is expected for the rest of the forecast period. So, get out and enjoy those spring-like temperatures. 

-Baker

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Forecasters: Baker, Gromada, Bongard

Date Issued: 3/14/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

For this forecasting shift, the GFS was the model of choice due to the handling of temperatures and the low pressure system tracking across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The problem of the day consists of the above average temperatures for the start of the week and the chance for precipitation tonight.

With a westerly flow at 250mb, the surface low located over the southern Rockies continues to push across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The low level jet over the southern Plains with winds speeds at about 30-40 knots is seen to be the cause of our above average temperatures for the middle of March. The low level jet is enhanced by the trough which is positioned over the central Plains Monday at 18Z. As the trough pushes southeast, an increase in divergence at 250mb associated with the low pressure system is seen in our region overnight into tomorrow. Vorticity also increases at 500mb overnight into tomorrow along with an increase in relative humidity in southern Missouri. This may lead to the chance of precipitation late tonight into tomorrow with only trace amounts of precipitation expected in our region.

The surface low continues to track southeast Tuesday into central Arkansas and our winds shift northerly by Tuesday at 12Z due to a shortwave pushing through our region. Clouds push out by Tuesday making for a mostly sunny day and as the low continues to track southeast and mid-Missouri sits on the backside of the low, winds shift coming from the west. For the rest of the forecast period through Wednesday, temperatures continue to be slightly above average with clear conditions until the next system pushes in Thursday.

-Gromada