Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Tonight - Clear. Low: 36-40.

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 56-60.

Wednesday night - Clear. Low: 34-38.

Thursday - Mostly Sunny. High: 58-62.

Friday - Cloudy.  High near 55.

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

Over the next few days clear sky conditions are going to remain due to a high pressure system located southwest of Missouri. North of us, a weak cold front is passing through Iowa which shouldn't affect our local weather. Expect max temperatures to persist in the upper 50's for both Wednesday and Thursday with night time lows in the mid 30's. For Friday there will be enough moisture to have cloudiness during the day.
Forecaster:  Johnston, Rojas, Hefner, Brown, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., October 16, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
High pressure continues to dominate the Central Plains, with its 1027mb center plotted over NE Oklahoma and Southeast Kansas. A weak cold front was plotted over Northern Iowa, and should move through the area overnight with little affect on our weather. The vertical column as a whole is extremely dry, with observed PWAT values less than 0.5". Little in the way of moistening is expected through Thursday, as the surface ridge continues to dominate and flow aloft continues to be largely zonal in nature. Temperatures will also continue to be below average throughout the entire forecast period. As we move overnight Thursday into Friday, expect warm air advection to begin as the surface high moves off to the east, leaving us in southerly flow. This warm air advection will be short lived, as both the GFS and NAM show FROPA occuring by Saturday afternoon. Both GFS and NAM model output show light QPFs for Friday morning and afternoon, generally less than 0.1". Due to differences in timing of precipitation, will defer to later shifts to pin down the rain threat.

No comments:

Post a Comment