Friday, October 19, 2018

Friday Night - Clearing skies overnight. Low: 42-46.

Saturday - Breezy and sunny skies. High: 56-60.

Saturday Night - Clear. Low: 30-34

Sunday - Sunny.  High: 54-58.

Monday - Mostly sunny. High: 68-72

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Tonight a weak cold front is expected to pass through around midnight. The passage of the front will push any remaining mositure and cloud cover allowing skies to clear overnight. For Homecoming Weekend we will enjoy fairly pleasant weather as we will sit under a ridge of high pressure for the forecast period. Expect winds to pick up quite a bit into Saturday afternoon. Saturday night will be our coldest of the forecast period, with temperatures potentially even falling below freezing. Sunday will be slightly cooler with highs in the mid 50s. As flow shifts more southerly, we will see much warmer temperatures for Monday.
Forecaster:  Travis, Ritter, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., October 19, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Cold FROPA is expected to occur tonight, with decent model consensus that this will occur around midnight. In its wake, moisture currently present between 700 hPa and the surface will be shunted off to the southeast, and skies will clear. Due to clearing occurring well after sundown, temperatures will intially fall slowly but will cool somewhat more quickly as skies clear. For Saturday, a 1032-hPa high pressure center will be encroaching upon central Missouri from the high plains. As a result, brilliant sunshine can be expected. Winds are also expected to shift from northwesterly to northerly and increase during the day as 850-700 hPa winds exceed 50 kts, likely meaning that the daytime high will be achieved during the early afternoon as opposed to the late afternoon. For Saturday night,winds should subside quickly after sunset. Being that central Missouri will remain under high pressure, clear skies will continue to dominate. With clear skies and calm winds, temperatures will really bottom out overnight, likely falling to near or slightly below freezing. For Sunday, high pressure will continue to impact central Missouri's weather, with clear skies and temperatures slightly cooler than Saturday. For Monday, GFS Skew-Ts indicate some morning high level clouds, but with the center of high pressure shifting east toward the Appalachians, flow will become southwesterly, and thus, warm air will advect into the region.

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