Monday, October 8, 2018

Tonight - Partly cloudy. Low: 66-70.

Tuesday - Cloudy and windy. High: 78-82.

Tuesday night - Thunderstorms likely late evening and overnight. Low: 66-70.

Wednesday - Morning rain leading into clearer skies for the evening. High: 66-70.

Thursday - Mostly sunny. High near 60.

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Tonight will be partly cloudy. Above average temperatures continue for tomorrow. We get some relief with clouds and winds. A strong cold front will move through late Tuesday night, bringing strong to severe thunderstorms into the area. This will allow much colder and below average temperatures to prevail through the end of our forecast period.

Forecaster:  Johnston, Danaher, Brown, Hirsch, and Market
Issued: 4:20 p.m., October 8, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Strong warm air advection prevails across the region currently, with above average temperature and moisture area wide. This will set the stage for potential severe weather Tuesday evening and overnight with the approach of a cold front. Models still differ in exact FROPA timing, with CAMs being the quickest and the GFS the slowest. Went with a blend of these for timing of FROPA on Tuesday. The slight risk across the region in the current SPC Day 2 outlook aligns well with current thoughts. Storms should be linear in nature ahead of the front, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. Instability will not be overly impressive with the lack of diurnal heating, but with bulk shear values around 40kts, severe weather cannot be ruled out. Will defer to later shifts in regards to pinning down the exact nature of the threat. After the cold front moves through the area, expect high pressure to build into the area and lead to below average temperatures towards the end of the week.

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