Monday, October 8, 2018

Monday - Mostly sunny. High near 82.

Monday night - Partly cloudy. Low: 66-70.

Tuesday - Cloudy and windy. High near 80.

Tuesday night - Thunderstorms likely late evening. Low: 66-70.

Wednesday - Morning rain leading into clearer skies for the afternoon. High near 68.

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Summer-like weather will persist today with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures leading into a partly cloudy night. Tomorrow will remain warm, cloudy and windy. A strong cold front will move through late Tuesday night, bringing thunderstorms leading into early Wednesday morning. Rain will move out by mid-day Wednesday, bringing cleared skies and much cooler temperatures leading into the rest of the week.

Forecaster:  Carlson, Scroggins, Hirsch, and Market
Issued: 9:20 a.m., October 8, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Overnight, Sanborn Field received almost 3 inches of rain providing some relief to the drought across the region. The warm front that brought the rain has lifted to our north and we remain in the warm sector for the next few days as temperatures yet again make it into the low 80s. The GFS is too aggressive with moisture today and brings rain into the area while the NAM keeps us dry. We have gone with the NAM for this forecast period. The next regime change looks to occur Tuesday night as a strong cold front moves through the region. The timing looks to be around 06 UTC with the precip. Due to lack of diurnal heating, severe potential is limited and biggest concerns would be wind and small hail as winds are unidirectional from the south at 30-40 kts up till 600 mb. There is ample moisture and lift with the region. Stratiform precip could presist for most of the morning on Wednesday. Future forecasters need to better nail down the timing and severe threat.

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