Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Will begin as clear, but clouds will move in as the night goes on. Low: 52-56.

Tuesday - Cloudy with afternoon showers. High: 66-70.

Tuesday night - Cloudy with overnight showers. Low: 46-50.

Wednesday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 56-60.

Thursday - A mix of sun and clouds. High: 56-60. 

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Discussion: 
Clouds will move in and increase overnight. Temperatures will remain above average through Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon we expect showers to start with a cold front that moves in and lingers overnight. We will cool down behind the cold front to be near average temperature and will have clouds that linger leaving dreary skies until we see some sun on Thursday. Remember to have a rain jacket or umbrella on Halloween night. 

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Forecaster:  Johnston, Danaher, Brown, Market and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., October 29, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
A blend of the 12Z NAM, 00ZGFS, ECMWF and UKMET were chosen for this forecast period because of their continuity. Throughout this week, our location will be bombarded with multiple shortwaves. The 1st shortwave will strike tonight. The upper level jet stream will shift causing us to enter a divergent zone aloft. This will cause convergence below which means that Tuesday evening will most likely have showers since precipitable water is above 1 inch. Soundings show the possibility of scattered thunderstorms because CAPE values have shown to be above 1000J/kg according to the models. We also noticed that storms will mainly be behind the cold front lasting from 21Z Tuesday to 09Z Wednesday. Rain amounts vary from 0.2" to .4" is the model consensus with some models depicting more. Behind the front on Wednesday and Thursday, expect mainly cloudy skies and cold air advection. This should keep temperatures below average.