Thursday, October 18, 2018

Tonight - Developing clouds overnight. Low: 40-44.

Friday - Light drizzle ending in early afternoon. High: 56-60.

Friday Night - Clouds moving out. Low: 42-46.

Saturday - Clear and sunny skies. High 56-60.

Sunday - Sunny.  High in mid 50's.

Thanks to for the icons!


Tonight we will be having clouds moving in late night around 4AM bringing early morning drizzle into the late afternoon. After this concludes, air will dry out along with a cold front moving in which will lower our temperatures for the weekend. Friday night will bring clearing skies and chilly temperatures. Saturday will be a continuation from the cold front with clear skies and milder temperatures. Winds from the north will increase throughout the afternoon with gusts up to 15 knots. Sunday will bring similar conditions for a taste of the incoming fall season.
Forecaster:  DollMyerSumrall, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., October 18, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The high pressure system that has been providing our pleasant conditions will be making it's way out of the area tonight and early tomorrow morning. An upper level jet maxima, associated with a strong upper level trough will impact the area through most of the day Friday. With this jet maxima we see increases values of moisture present through all layers. This increase in moisture will be responsible for overcast conditions throughout Friday. Friday morning we see a 500mb vort max over mid-Missouri as well as some moderate values of lift and slight warm air advection. These are short-lived however so they will have minimum impact on our weather. Models are in disagreement as to our chances for seeing precipitation. The GFS has the precipitation to our south, with Columbia just getting a trace. The NAM is more aggressive in our precipitation chance  calling for a quarter of an inch. Both models due agree however that precipitation chances are best in the morning hours. As we move into Friday evening we will see a significant decrease in moisture as a cold front makes its way through the area. Models are in disagreement as to when we can expect the passage of this front. NAM has the front moving through in the overnight hours of Friday, while the GFS has it moving through Saturday morning.

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