Friday, October 5, 2018

Friday night- Isolated showers early. Mostly cloudy. Low: 66-70.

Saturday - Morning rain becoming isolated in the afternoon. Cloudy. High near 78-82.

Saturday night- Rain with isolated thunderstorms. Cloudy. Low: 62-66.

Sunday -  Isolated showers throughout the day. Mostly cloudy. High:78-82.

Monday - Morning rain becoming scattered. Mostly cloudy. High near 82.

Thanks to for the icons! 

The next few days we will see a wet, active pattern, meaning we can expect to see widespread rain and possible thunder during the overnights and into the mornings, becoming more isolated into the afternoons. A warm lifted through today cause the temperatures to rebound to the mid 80s. This warmth continues as the a front stall out across central Missouri. The wobbling of the front suggests that this pattern will repeat itself for the forecast period with little change in the forecasted temperatures from day to day. Models depict about 1 inch falling across the region by Monday morning.
Forecaster:  Travis, Ritter, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:03 p.m., October 5, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
At the start of the forecast period, isolated showers and cloud cover exists in the northern half of the state. This shower activity is along the warm front that lifted through this today causing our temperatures to rebound to the 80s. We didn't rule out showers, but best time looks to be before 03 UTC, and they will be isolated if they do form. If we do miss out on showers Friday night, we will more than make up for it as we can expect rain chances for the entire forecast period. This is due to two things:
1.) a ridge that persists over the southern states that will provide ample southerly flow and moisture to the region until it breaks down next week. PWATs over the forecast period are above 1.50" which is high for this time of year
2.) a weak low over central KS develops a weak cold front that stalls and becomes stationary over the middle of MO, providing a trigger region for multiple rounds of rain and some thunderstorms.
The heaviest rain looks to develop overnight into the morning time, between 03-15 UTC, as the LLJ reaches between 30-35 knots on both days this weekend. Rain looks to end midday, but isolated showers are possible due to an abundance of moisture, divergence aloft, and lift all associated with that stalled out front. The location of front is the crux of the forecast period and will really determine the location of afternoon precipitation. Rumbles of thunder are possible as CAPE for both nights is between 1000-1200 J/kg. Models are not in agreement with rainfall across the region. KCOU looks to be about 1" by Monday, but a shift eastward would put us in heavier amount like KMCI which could see 2"+.

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