Monday, October 29, 2018

Monday - Sunny. High: 66-70.

Monday night - Will begin as clear, but clouds will move in as the night goes on. Low: 52-56. 

Tuesday - Cloudy with afternoon showers. High: 66-70. 

Tuesday night - Cloudy. Low: 46-50. 

Wednesday - Cloudy. High: 56-60. 

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Discussion: Enjoy today's sunshine, because it won't be sticking around much longer. Mid-Missouri will see unseasonably warm temperatures today and clear skies, but clouds will move in overnight and keep things dreary over the next few days. Temperatures will stay warm tomorrow, but rain is expected over the course of tomorrow afternoon. Conditions will stay cloudy through Wednesday with cooler temps.

Forecaster:  Carlson, Scroggins, Market and Hirsch
Issued: 9:30 a.m., October 29, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
We forecasted mostly using the NAM because the model diagnostics had it lining up better than the GFS. High pressure over the bootheel will keep our conditions sunny and warm today, but as that pressure system moves out, clouds will move in overnight. As it moves it off to the east, we will have southerly flow bringing in WAA allowing for warmer temperatures for today. A cold front will make its way through from the northwest around 00 UTC on Wednesday, bringing with it our only precipitation for the week. The atmosphere will be fairly dry aloft but moist at the surface, but as the rain moves through the atmosphere will become more saturated, followed by it drying up fairly quickly after the rain moves through. During the rain, wide spread over RH over 80% at 700 mb with omega values over 14 mb/s from 18 UTC on the 30th to the 03 UTC on the 31st. Rain amounts vary from 0.2" to .4" is the model consensus with some models depicting more. Have erred on the low side but future forecasters can focus on exact timing and amount.  Following the passage will be cooler overnight temps and temperatures about 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday.

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