Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Tonight- Partly cloudy. Low: 70-74.

Wednesday - Partly sunny and windy. High: 87-91.

Wednesday night - Becoming cloudy with showers developing overnight. Low: 58-62.

Thursday - Overcast with occasional showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. High: 75-80.

 Friday - Cloudy early with gradual clearing. High near 80.
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On Wednesday warm conditions will persist which will allow us to reach near a record high. Gradual clearing will occur throughout the day. On Wednesday night expect cloud development with a possibility of showers due to a cold front passage late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Additonally, the frontal passage carries a potential of thunderstorms and precipitation throughout the day. The cold front will transition into a warm front and move through the area, triggering warm conditions again by Friday and the weekend.
Forecaster:  Hefner, Rojas, Brown, Market, and Hirsch
Issued: 5:15 p.m., October 2, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Warm air advection will continue to lead to above average temperatures throughout the beginning of the forecast period. Highs will reach into the upper 80s on Wednesday amid a tightening surface pressure gradient. This pressure gradient will lead to strong southerly winds during the day Wednesday. Confidence is beginning to increase in regards to Thursday. FROPA should happen overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning. As such, the high temperature Thursday will most likely need to be trended downward in future shifts. Thunderstorms are beginning to look likely on Thursday as MUCAPE values approach 1000-1200 J/Kg near the time of FROPA. The front never really exits the area, as it stalls just to our south. It should then lift north as a warm front and lead again to above average temperatures on Friday.   

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