Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Tonight-  Cloudy. Low: 39-43.

Thursday-  Mostly Cloudy. High: 54-58.

Thursday night- Cloudy and chances of light rain. Low: 41-45.

Friday- Cloudy. High: near 52-56.

Saturday- Cloudy with High near 58.

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Clouds will begin to enter our area overnight Wednesday and during Thursday as cold front comes through the area mid-day. Thursday night there is a chance of light rain after the front passes. Friday will be mostly cloudy as well, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s as the system from Thursday slowly makes its way out of the area.  Saturday clouds will continue as another weak cold front moves through the area.    
Forecaster:  Azzara, Munley, Sumrall, Hirsch, and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., October 23, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

We have had a very fall like day here in mid-Missouri and that is due to a high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes that is creating the seasonable temperatures and mostly clear skies with the exception of recently increasing upper level cirrus clouds. As that high pressure system moves eastward ahead of an approaching cold front, it will drag down our temperatures, highs tomorrow being in the mid to low 50's, along with an increase in cloud cover overnight due to increasing moisture in the upper levels. A cold front will push through the area around 18-21 UTC on Thursday also aiding in the drop in temperatures. It also opens up the slight possibility for some drizzle with chances increasing as we head towards late Thursday evening. There is a swaft of saturated air aloft but from the surface to about 700 mb is quite dry. That moist layer will thicken into tomorrow, leading to only a trace of precipitation. PWATS do increase from about a quarter of an inch to an inch, leading to a slight confidence in precipitation for Thursday. Rain totals will be minimal for mid-MO since the available moisture is quite low in the lower levels of the atmosphere, but most models, at least at this point, are agreeing on a trace of precipitation (around 2mm). The rain chances will clear up as the trough moves out of the area by Friday morning, leaving behind lots of cloud cover and a slight warm up with highs from 54-58. Another weak shortwave trough will move into the area on Saturday but with this system the moisture will be more limited so the chance of precipitation is poor.

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