Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Tonight - Thunderstorms likely late evening and overnight. Low: 66-70.

Wednesday - Morning rain leading into clearer skies for the evening. High: 66-70.

Wednesday night - Mostly clear. Low: 39-43.

Thursday - Mostly sunny. High: 56-60.

Friday - Cloudy with isolated showers. High near 55.

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Tonight a strong cold front will be passing into our area bringing thunderstorms and heavy precipation which will persist until Wednesday morning. As the front passes Wednesday afternoon, expect mostly clear skies with chilly temperatures for Wednesday night. Temperatures will be in the mid 50's for both Thursday and Friday with cloud development occuring Friday morning and isolated showers around mid-day.

Forecaster:  Rojas, Hefner, Brown, Hirsch, and Market
Issued: 4:00 p.m., October 9, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Current regional radar imagery shows a broken line of convection beginning to push into Central Missouri and a more complete line pushing into Southwest Missouri. These areas of convection will give us a risk of severe weather, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. Skew-ts show unidirectional shear for up to 600 mb with winds out of the south at 30-40 mph. Most of the lift during the model run is associated along the front. This convection should exit the area after sunset and more stratiform precipitation should fall towards sunrise Wednesday before FROPA. After the aformentioned cold frontal passage, expect surface high pressure to build into the area and lead to below average temperatures through the end of the forecast period. Also, cannot rule out isolated showers on Friday, but will defer to later shifts to nail down the precipitation threat. 

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