Monday, November 12, 2018

Monday  - Overcast with snow falling throughout the day. High: 30-34.

Monday night - Overcast. Snow will end late evening. Low: 16-20.

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 28-32.

Tuesday night - Clear. Low: 15-19. 


Wednesday - Sunny. High: 38-42.

Thanks to for the icons!


Low pressure associated with a cold front that moved through the area this morning has brought snowy, overcast skies that will continue through late Monday evening. Snowfall should peak this afternoon between noon and 3 p.m. Snow will end late tonight before midnight. We should end up with snowfall totals between 1 and 2 inches. Once this area of low pressure moves out, high pressure moves in and will keep us sunny and clear throughout the week, although temperatures will remain far below normal for this time of year.
Forecaster: Carlson, Scroggins and Hirsch
Issued: 9:30 a.m., November 12, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

We will continue to see early season snow today as the atmosphere remains saturated and temperatures remain far below average. The snow is all post-frontal; the front has already moved through the area with little pressure and temperature change. We expect the heaviest snow accumulation to occur between 1800 and 2100 UTC Monday when omega values are maximized between 300 and 500 mb. Snow potential will continue until the late evening hours when the atmosphere dries out between 0300 and 0600 UTC Tuesday. With the highest lifting happening above 500 mb, much isn't expected in terms of heavy snowfall amounts. Our soil temperatures at both 2 and 4 inches are still above freezing, so there will be plenty of melting to start with at the surface. Skew-T and pressure charts indicate below freezing at all levels, so no melting is expected. We are predicting snowfall totals between 1 and 2 inches, but the models show uncertainty and have been trending downwards with 1 inch being the latest model run from the SREF. The HRRR also has us seeing 1 to 2 inches. High pressure will move in Tuesday morning and keep our skies clear throughout the day Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures continuing to stay way below the climatological average. The location of the high will be off to our southwest, keeping northerly winds that will reinforce that cold air.

No comments:

Post a Comment