Friday, November 2, 2018

Friday Night - Cloudy with sprinkles ending in the evening. Low: 38-42. 

Saturday - Cloudy, breezy, and chilly. High: 52-56.

Saturday Night - Continued overcast and breezy with rain developing overnight.  Low:  42-46.

Sunday - Mostly cloudy with rain ending by noon. High: 54-58.

Monday - Cloudy skies with rain developing.  High:  54-58.

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Discussion: Pesky sprinkles should temporarily come to an end this evening, but overcast conditions should dominate our skies through at least Sunday. Saturday day will be a dry day, with winds increasing. Rain will likely build in late Saturday night, ending sometime Sunday morning. Clouds may part briefly during the day Sunday, but sunshine will generally be hard to come by. Monday will bring an increased threat for rainfall. Temperatures throughout the period will be slightly below average, with Sunday and Monday being slightly warmer than Saturday.  

Our student says "Don't forget to fall back."  He's a good Steward.

Forecaster: Travis, Ritter, Hirsch, Market, and Steward
Issued: 5:00 p.m., November 2, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
For this forecast period we decided to rely on the GFS over other models due its positioning of the trough, and per WPC's recommendations. MOS and SREF were not strongly considered for this forecast period, as they have trended   warm for the past several days. As the current vort max moves off to the northeast, another one will be quick to replace it as mid-Missouri will see two shortwaves this period reinforcing the longwave trough presently over much of the CONUS. Each of these shortwaves will bring with them precipitation. The first chance for precipitation will begin shortly after 06 UTC Saturday. A  to the GFS time height was used to diagnose this as it showed RH values of over 95% through with significant lift. The precipitation will be short lives, however, with GFS Skew-Ts showing the atmosphere drying out early Sunday morning. A strong LLJ develops indicating winds in excess of 50 knots at H85 associated with the approach of the next shortwave, so expect winds possibly exceeding 20 knots at the surface. The strong winds at H85 stick around for the remainder of the forecast period, only briefly dying down Sunday night into Monday morning, but then picking up yet again as the second precipitation event approaches Monday afternoon. Monday's forecasters should focus on the timing and amount with this system.

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