Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Tonight  - Clear. Low: 15-19.

Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 38-42.

Wednesday night - Increasing cloudiness. Low: 20-24.

Thursday - Clouds decreasing through the morning. High: 42-46.

Friday -  A mix of sun and clouds. High: 46-50.


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Typical fall weather will return to Mid-Missouri providing much needed relief from our recent wild winter weather weekend. Daily maximum temperatures will be gradually increasing throughout the week. Expect temperatures in the upper 40's on both Thursday and Friday with generally sunny conditions.
Forecaster: Rojas, Hefner, Brown, Market and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., November 13, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

For this discussion, a blend of the 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF was used. After the passage of a cold front we expect drier conditions for the rest of the week, with some moisture advecting in by late Thursday. At 250mb a closed low is passing south of the area during this week, and the same flow regime is also present at 500mb and at 850mb. The possible track of the low pressure system moves from the Mid-south to the northeast. The closed low stays southeast of us during Thursday afternoon bringing enough moisture for clouds developing until Friday morning when the low system leave the area. At 700 mb the relative humidity is near 80% but with downward motion at 06Z on Thursday. The timing of this cloudiness is still up for debate between the NAM and GFS. The NAM solution brings the cloudy skies earlier.  Finally, the models show a large discrepancy in amounts of moisture on Friday.

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