Monday, November 26, 2018

Monday - Morning overcast will give way to a partly sunny afternoon.  High:  28-32.

Monday Night - Mainly clear. Low:  14-18.

Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High:  30-34.

Tuesday Night -  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low:  16-20.

Wednesday - Increasing clouds.  High: 38-42.


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After dropping 1-2" of sleet and snow on the Columbia area, with gusts over 30 mph, our small, compact cyclone has scooted off to the north and east. In its wake, we can expect breezy conditions and temperatures that will struggle to hit the freezing mark on Monday in spite of gradually improving skies.  After a chilly Monday night, temperatures will start to rebound on Tuesday with the approach of a high pressure system, which will clear out our skies and give us much weaker winds.  Much of our local snow will melt tomorrow.  High level clouds will develop late Tuesday night into Wednesday, so a faster warm up is not in the cards...

Forecasters: Waldorf, Statler, and Market
Issued: 6:47 a.m., November 26, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
After reviewing the handling of the previous storm, and assessing the current situation, GFS solutions appear to have the best handle on matters over the next 48-72 hours.  Problem of the day (POD) is actually cloud cover.  This factor will dictate the amount of insolation and so the amount of snow melt and so the speed with which our temperatures are able to recover. 1-2" of snow is as pretty as it is difficult to work with, since it doesn't completely coat areas such as grass. So...more sun means faster melt, and we're back to our POD.  As such, have played it close to the usual pattern that comes after the departure of cyclones like Sunday's.  GFS MOS seems to capture this well, with a bit of help from the SREF plume as far as adjusting the ranges.    

Looking to Tuesday night and Wednesday, a more conservative approach was taken toward temperatures.  Models depict the departure of the weak anticyclone, and the formation of a large, amorphous area of low pressure to our west.  This means near-surface warm advection, but the GFS and FIM also agree on the presence of high clouds.  Tuesday night lows and Wednesday highs will likely need to be revisited, with an eye toward an upward trend. 

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