Thursday, November 8, 2018

Thursday night - Cloudy, showers changing over to snow. Low: 30-34.

Friday - Morning clouds clearing out for a mostly sunny. High: 36-40.

Friday night - Skies remain clear overnight. Low: 28-32.

Saturday - Mostly sunny. High: 34-38.

Sunday - Clouds start to build in over the course of the day. High 42-46.

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Rain showers should overspread the area around sunset, bringing in snow in the late evening. Snow should end shortly after midnight, but there is a possibility of freezing drizzle continuing until sunrise. The cold front will pass by Friday morning, bringing clearing skies, windy conditions, and highs in the upper 30s. Gameday will be very cold for this time of year, with highs only in the mid 30s.  Skies overnight Saturday will remain clear into Sunday morning.  Cloud cover should build back in on Sunday with temperatures warming into the low 40s.  Monday brings another possibility of snow for the start of the work week.

Forecaster: Doll, Sumrall, Market, Hirsch, Brown, Lupo, Hefner, Steward, Travis, Clay, and Bongard
Issued: 5:00 p.m., November 8, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Winter precipitation is anticipated to occur in the KCOU area over the next few hours. Prolonged deep moisture will continue overnight, with a period of rain before the changeover (by 03Z/9).  The ground will be wet and still relatively warm which will encourage significant melting before snow can start to lay and accumulate. That being said, excessive accumulations appear unlikely.

Both NAM and GFS solutions have merit, but we have also interrogated several auxiliary sources, including the FIM, SREF, and TTU Ensemble page.  Of those portals, the TTU solution is the most aggressive with precipitation, and the FIM the least in terms of snow accumulations.  So... I'm stuck in the middle with you, and we again opt for the SREF values.  These appear to be the middle ground, with overnight accumulations of snow on the order of 1.2 inches (multiplied by 0.8 to ratio it down from the presumed 10:1 ratio for snow).  As such, accumulations of around an inch appear to be the most likely in the immediate KCOU vicinity.

Beyond this evening, unseasonably cold temperatures will persist through the forecast period. Northwesterly winds will make temperatures feel much colder through Friday behind the passage of the cold front. Possible snow bursts can be expected behind the front Friday afternoon. A strong upper level jet persists through the weekend and will aid in the breezy conditions Friday afternoon providing wind chills in the upper 20's. Saturday will remain sunny but we will see the coldest temperatures of the season thus far with high's only expected to reach the mid 30's. On Sunday, we will experience a brief warm up before another system moves into the area.

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