Friday, November 9, 2018

Friday night - Decreasing clouds. Low: 18-22

Saturday - Sunny skies. High: 30-34

Saturday night - Increasing clouds. Low: 26-30

Sunday - Cloudy with light snow overnight. High: 38-42

Monday - Overcast. High: 32-36

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Unseasonably cold weather invades mid-Missouri this forecast period with temperatures bottoming out Friday night into Saturday morning. Bundle up for the football game on Saturday, as temperatures will not get above the low to mid 30s. Despite the frigid temperatures, skies should stay clear for the entirety of the game, becoming cloudy into Saturday night. Clouds will stick around for the remainder of the forecast period, and we will see our second chance for snow this season Sunday night, perhaps leading to light accumulations (less than 1"). Gee wiz!

Forecaster: Travis, Ritter, Hirsch, and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., November 9, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
It appears as though our brief period of snow will quickly transition into a period of unseasonably cold temperatures. GFS and NAM both indicate that strong cold air advection has begun and will continue throughout the overnight. GFS SKEW-Ts also show that the atmosphere will dry considerably overnight, meaning that cloud cover should exit the area overnight. With the clear skies and continued cold air advection, temperatures will bottom out to near record lows tonight. For Saturday, an area of high pressure should pass near the area, keeping our skies clear. Winds will likely shift to the southwest throughout the day, but temperatures will remain far below average.

Our next system will begin to impact mid-Missouri Saturday night. GFS shows this system ejecting out of the Desert Southwest late Saturday night, moving into the Lower Mississippi River Valley by early Monday. In its wake, we should begin to see an increase in clouds late Saturday night, with skies becoming completely overcast by Sunday morning. This will cause a smaller drop in temperatures overnight Saturday and a lesser rebound Sunday; although, with continued southwesterly flow, high temperatures on Sunday should be warmer than Saturday. By Sunday night, GFS shows divergence at 250 hPa with a 500 hPa vort max approaching the area. SKEW-Ts show a rapidly saturating column over Columbia, but lift at 700 hPa is not overly impressive. This leads us to believe that there will be a period of light snow Sunday night, with minor accumulations under one inch.

The system will exit to our east on Monday, but high level cloudiness should persist through the day. Cold air advection returns, meaning that we will be forced back into cold November weather.

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