Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Cloudy with rain throughout the afternoon and early evening. High: 50-54. 

Monday night - Gradually clearing. Low: 39-43.

Tuesday - Sunny with clouds building late afternoon. High: 55-59.

Tuesday night - Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low: 34-38.

Wednesday - Sunny. High: 46-50.
 

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Discussion: 
Rain moves into the area as we head into the afternoon hours. This is due to a warm front pushing through. After the rain clears later this evening, we will be left with overcast skies that start to clear out overnight and allow our lows to drop down into the mid 30s. Tomorrow should stay clear for polling with highs in the upper 50s with windier conditions. However, a chance of rain makes its way back into the forecast by Tuesday night before midnight then will start to clear out. Wednesday will be another sunny day but will be a bit cooler with highs in the upper 40s, so get ready to break out that winter coat. Wednesday night our lows dip below freezing, so make sure to bring your plants inside or cover them.

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Forecaster: Carlson, Scroggins, Munley, Azzara, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 9:30 a.m., November 5, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
We went with the GFS today because it has a confidence that was slightly above average. The area will see rain throughout the day Monday ahead of a warm front that will pass through Columbia as an occluded front around 2200 UTC. Precipitation will start around 1800 UTC. Time heights also confirm this timing. The atmosphere will be saturated up to 350 mb with omega values upwards of -20 mb/s. PWAT values jump from around .6 to about .9 around the time it's supposed to start raining this afternoon. There are some areas that will show stronger reflectivity, but then most of it will be stratiform rain. Sunny skies will bring us warmer temperatures Tuesday afternoon with clouds building later in the day ahead of another chance for rain. Tuesday night is the next chance of precipitation, as we will be under the influence of a cold front to our north that moves through about 0600 UTC Wednesday. The omega values are maximized at 10 mb/s between 800 and 600 mb around the time of rain with the atmosphere saturated up to about 600 mb. The winds Wednesday shift to be out of the north at the surface, filtering in cooler air with temperatures reflecting this.