Friday, November 30, 2018

Tonight - Heavy rain with thunder possible. Low: 42-46

Saturday - Rain ending before sunrise. Clouds remain. Midday T-storms possible. Windy. High: 58-62

Saturday Night - Cloudy and Breezy. Low: 38-42

Sunday - Cloudy. High 40-44

Monday - Cloudy with a rain or snow shower possible. High: 32-36


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The active weather persists throughout this weekend into early next week. Tonight expect heavy rain with a few rumbles of thunder possible beginning around midnight. A warm front will pass through Columbia and bring up our temperatures as the night progresses. Tomorrow, expect much warmer temperatures than we have been experiencing for most of November. Do not hope for pleasant spring weather, though, as winds could exceed 30mph with clouds partially clearing. The potential for isolated midday thunderstorms lingers. Warm temperatures do not stick around past Saturday with temperatures falling back into the low 40s Sunday, and continuing to drop into Monday. 

Forecasters: Ritter, Travis, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:50 p.m., November 29, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

Active weather is again expected to impact mid-Missouri this weekend; however, unlike several previous instances this month, this iteration is expected to manifest itself mainly in the form of rain. 250-hPa jet streak coupling is expected to occur this evening, enhancing divergence aloft. At 700 hPa, upward vertical motion more than sufficient to support rainfall will also occur this evening. Additionally, 850-hPa winds will be out of the southwest at 35-45 kts, which will help transport plenty of moisture toward the area. All of these factors point to a rainy evening for Columbia. Also, it should be noted that between midnight and sunrise, K-Index vales will be greater than 30, Lifted Index values will be less than 0, there will be positive CAPE present, and temperatures will be nearly equal to convective temperatures. This hints at the possibility for a few thunderstorms embedded in the rain during this time frame. As one final note, PWATs are expected to be around 1.2 inches, and while these values to don't hint at a widespread heavy rainfall event, they do suggest the brief periods of heavy rainfall are possible. Rain is expected to clear shortly before sunrise, but clouds should rain throughout the day. 850-hPa winds will still be in the 35-45 kt range, but these winds will be able to more sufficiently mix to the surface, leading to a breezy day Saturday. SPC places Columbia on the fringe of a marginal risk Saturday, so it seems appropriate to mention the chance of a thunderstorm or two, mainly around midday. The most significant threat for thunderstorms, including some severe, will reside to our east. 

Flow transitions from southwesterly to northwesterly Saturday night, reacquainting our area will the below normal temperatures we have grown accustomed to. Cloudy skies will persist throughout the remainder of the period. One final note of interest is that as a minor disturbance pushes through the area on Monday, there is the possibility of a couple rain or snow showers during the day.

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