Friday, November 16, 2018

Friday Night - Increasing Clouds. Low: 32-36.

Saturday - Overcast. High: 42-46.

Saturday Night - Cloudy with a patchy rain or freezing rain. Low: 28-32

Sunday -  Cloudy with light snow possible. High: 32-36

Monday - Becoming partly sunny. High: 44-48


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The active weather pattern mid-Missouri has experienced over the past 10 days is anticipated to continue through the weekend. Clouds will be increase tonight ahead of the next system, with lows in the mid-30s. Saturday will continue to be cloudy; however, no precipitation is expected during the daytime. Because of clouds, temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Saturday when compared with Friday. Precipitation, if it occurs, begins as either rain or freezing rain late Saturday night and will change over to snow by Sunday morning, ending by Sunday evening. There are a couple of key points that must be made with regards to this system: first, the precipitation will be very light; second, precipitation will likely not be continuous. We expect minor accumulations with travel only minimally impacted. Highs on Sunday will struggle to climb out of the mid-30s. As the system moves away from our area Monday, skies will clear and temperatures will surge into the mid- to upper-40s.

Forecaster: Travis, Ritter, Market, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., November 16, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
As per WPC's recommendation a blend between the GFS and NAM was used for this forecast, mainly focusing on the GFS due to the NAM's uncertainty with precipitation for Sunday. Saturday will see cooler temperatures as cold air advection occurs late Friday night into Saturday morning. Saturday's maximum temperatures will struggle to get into the mid 40s. GFS Skew-T's indicate clouds building into mid-Missouri by 0900 UTC on Saturday and persist for the duration of the weekend. These clouds will aid in keeping temperatures quite cooler than the seasonal temperatures seen on Friday. The first chance of precipitation comes Saturday night as GFS Skew-T's indicate a saturated atmosphere below H85 with some omega values. Though ice will not be introduced into the warm layer indicated by the Skew-T, surface temperatures right around freezing could result in a brief period of freezing drizzle. A light glaze could form on cars and elevated surfaces, but no significant ice accumulation. Light snow is possible throughout the day, Sunday, as both Skew-T-'s and GFS time heights indicate a well saturated atmosphere with moderate omega values Sunday morning. Expect little to no accumulations with Sanborn Field soil temperatures well above freezing. The atmosphere dries out and clouds clear out by Monday morning with slightly warmer air advecting into the region.

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