Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Tonight - Cloudy . Low: 28-32.

Thursday - Building clouds leading to showers by evening. High: 35-39.


Thursday night -  Cloudy showers changing over to snow. Low: 30-34. 

Friday- morning clouds clearing out for a partly sunny afternoon. Breezy.  High: 36-40.

Saturday- Mostly sunny. High: 34-38.

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This period will be marked by well-below average temperatures and a chance for wintry precipitation. For tonight, cloudy conditions are to be expected with lows near freezing. Clouds will persist into the day tomorrow, limiting high temperatures from exceeding the upper 30s. Tomorrow night is where things get interesting. Rain showers should overspread the area around sunset, mixing with, then changing over to snow during by midnight. Snow should end shortly after midnight, but there is a possibility of freezing drizzle continuing until sunrise. The cold front will pass by Friday morning, bringing clearing skies, windy conditions, and highs in the upper 30s. Gameday will be very cold for this time of year, with highs only in the mid 30s.

Forecaster: Ritter, Bongard, SumrallHirsch and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., November 7, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Winter precipitation is anticipated to occur in the KCOU area over the next 48 hr.  GFS solutions dominate this forecast cycle with a bit of backstop from the FIM and its recent trend.  These solutions are favored over the latest NAM, which is highly aggressive in precipitation accumulation.  Prolonged deep moisture will certainly exist throughout Thursday, but with a period of rain before the changeover (by 06Z/9), the ground will be wet and encourage significant melting before snow can start to lay and accumulate.  Also, given the early season date, fairly mild temperatures on Thursday, and Sanborn Field soil temps still in the low 50s, (currently), excessive accumulations appear all the more unlikely.

As for snowfall amounts, SREF values appear to be the middle ground, with overnight accumulations of snow on the order of 1.2 inches (multiplied by 0.8 to ratio it down from the presumed 10:1 ratio for snow).  Even so, accumulations of an inch, at most, appear to be the most likely in the immediate KCOU vicinity.

Unseasonably cold temperatures will persist through the forecast period. Northwesterly winds will make temperatures feel much colder through Friday, but clouds will clear out in the afternoon hours. Another cold front moves through late Friday early Saturday which will be responsible for the coldest temperatures of the season so far on Saturday.

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