Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Tonight - Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. Low: 36-40.

Wednesday - Partly Cloudy. High: 50-54.

Wednesday night -  Cloudy. Low: 30-34. 

Thursday - Cloudy with light rain developing around sunset.  High: 40-44.

Thursday Night - Cloudy with rain changing over to snow near midnight. Snow will end by sunrise. Little to no accumulation expected. Low: 30-34.

Friday- Cloudy with gradual clearing after sunset. High: 36-40.

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Mostly cloudy conditions are expected for Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures around 50, as winds are mostly northerly. Temperatures for Thursday will reach into the 40's and drop overnight to around freezing. After some patchy light rain on Thursday evening, colder temperatures along with high relative humidity will allow us to have a chance at some snow near and after midnight, but with the opportunity will be short-lived. Little to no accumulation is expected into Friday morning.

Forecaster: Hefner, Rojas, BrownHirsch and Market
Issued: 5:00 p.m., November 6, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Due to the positioning of the trough and WPC recommendations, we relied on the GFS for this forecasting period. Several embedded shortwaves troughs will be advancing across the Midwest effecting our local weather this week. These shortwaves will provide a chance of light precipitation tonight as a cold front from the north travels across Missouri. Furthermore, an additional shortwave will offer our first opportunity of snow this Fall on Thursday. Expect periods of light rainfall starting around 00Z Friday with a transition into snowfall around 06Z. The GFS supports snowfall due to decent levels of omega forcing, cold 850 mb temperatures, wet bulb temperature below freezing, and an advancing zipper moistening effect. Soil temperatures will be well above freezing, so any significant accumulation with this event is unlikely. Precipitation will stop prior to sunrise Friday morning with clearing occurring throughout the day.

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