Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tonight - Mostly cloudy. Low: 30-34.

Thursday - Cloudy. High: 46-50.

Thursday Night- Cloudy. Low: 33-37.

Friday- Mostly cloudy with showers starting in evening. High: 48-52.

Saturday- Rain in morning then partly sunny. High's near 50.

 

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Discussion:
We started our climb in temperature today and while we remained cloudy, we had a chance to melt away some of that residual snow. We will continue to warm throughout the rest of the work week and into Saturday but remain cloudy all the while. Before we peak in our warming trend we will have a warm front come through on Friday. This warm front will bring with it some precipitation in the form of rain, we should not see any freezing precip as of right now. Showers are expected to start on Friday night around 10pm and continue into Saturday morning. We should be dry by Saturday afternoon but once all of the rain is said and done we should have picked up around half an inch of precipitation. Our temperatures should peak on Saturday as well and we will start a cooling trend into the start of the next week.

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Forecasters: Azzara, Munley, Sumrall, Hirsch and Market
Issued: 4:50 p.m., November 28, 2018

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The jet stream is going to be more zonal for the next few days.  Temperatures will be trending upward with a warm front that passed through early this afternoon.  The higher temperatures along with warm air advection will continue to melt the remaining snow.  Clouds will continue to persist throughout the forecast period due to the warm air advection as well as ample amounts of moisture throughout all levels.  Friday night into Saturday is what we are keeping an eye on. A strong low approaching from our west will bring the next chance of rain with PWAT values jumping from 0.79in to 1.15in. Strong values of shear and instability will provide favorable conditions for thunderstorms, but these should stay to the south of mid-Missouri. The chance for rain begins around 9-10pm Friday night and end around noon on Saturday as the low passes off to our north in southern Iowa. After the low passes on Saturday we will be clearing out behind the system and warming up again to above average temperatures.