Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday: Decreasing Clouds. High: 43
Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 31
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 61
Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 48
Thursday: Rainy. High: 56
Cloud cover will begin to dissipate today allowing for some sunshine to peek through this afternoon. Although temperatures will barely get into the 40s, a warmup is expected in the next couple of days. Winds from the south on Wednesday will help temperatures reach the 60 degree mark before temperatures cool slightly on Thursday as a storm system will bring rainy weather during that day.
Forecasters: Simmons, Meier, VanUnnik
Date Issued: 3/14/2023 10:00 AM CDT
A cloudy sky that has dominated central Missouri the last few couple of days will eventually break down paving way for sunshine and warmer weather. The warmer weather will be short lived as a series of shortwaves will make the weather a bit active as we near the end of the week.
An upper-level trough is situated over the Great Lakes area and will eventually make its way through the Northeast today. As this trough moves away, a ridge pattern will follow late tonight and into Wednesday. At the onset of this ridge, a surface high directly over Missouri will move through keeping the weather generally calm with light winds and a clearing sky during the afternoon.
A ridge will build in to the central CONUS Wednesday. As the surface high will be off to our east, a low-level southerly flow will help temperatures warm 5-10 degrees above average. In the meantime, two shortwaves will be meandering eastward. The first shortwave will be situated near the Dakotas while the second will be situated off the Colorado Rockies. By Wednesday night, a LLJ will start to become enhanced to the south. This LLJ, combined with some negative omega overnight Wednesday, will provide some forcing. The combination of the two will help advect moisture and cloud cover overnight Wednesday before precipitation chances ramp up Thursday.
On Thursday, two shortwaves will start to move through the Great Plains. Ahead of these shortwaves, moisture and cloud cover will be socked in. Vorticity advection will move in Thursday morning before vorticity maxima will move over MO around 03z Friday. Most of the forcing looks to be present during the day Thursday and into the early evening. As Thursday afternoon turns into evening, the two shortwaves will combine to form a jetstreak from Oklahoma to Missouri. Around this time frame is when the best dynamics come together for ascent and upper air divergence. Associated with the merging of the shortwaves will be a surface low that traverses throughout the plains and moves over Missouri during the day Thursday. There will be an attendant cold front linked to this low that will move from west to east as suggested in the 850 dew point contours. Rainfall looks to be most consistent in the afternoon hours of Thursday and into the early evening as rainfall totals will be about 0.25"-0.5"
Once the cold front passes through, CAA will be very apparent overnight Thursday and into Friday. Although some inconsistencies remain with chances of post-frontal precipitation, any wraparound moisture on the back side of the low could result in snow mixing in. The next forecast shift should monitor this as the event gets closer.
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