Monday, March 6, 2023

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday: Mostly clear. High:70

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 36

 Increasing clouds. High: 52

 Tuesday Night: 
Chance for showers. Low:39


Rain showers. High: 47


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The beginning part of the week will continue warmer than average temperatures for the month of February. Monday will have a high of 68 before a cold front moves through dropping temperatures down to the lower 50s and upper 40s for highs. Wednesday will bring rain showers starting in the early morning lasting throughout the day.


Forecasters:Herion, Jones, Aldrich

Date Issued: 03/06/2023 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:
After comparing both the GFS and NAM, we decided to follow the NAM today due to its grasp of initial conditions and the placement of the weak low over mid-Missouri. The NBM and SREF were consulted for temperature readings. Our focus of this forecast shift is the potential for overnight showers on Tuesday and decreasing temperatures after an unseasonably warm Monday.

At the upper levels, ridging continues for much of the forecast period. As the sub-tropic jet stays above mid-Missouri. This will bring above average temperatures for the CWA for Monday. This ridging pattern will continue through Tuesday before a shortwave trough passes through late Tuesday evening and into Wednesday afternoon.

At the mid-levels, the shortwave becomes more prevalent. Ridging continues into Monday but a wave of vorticity begins to push through Tuesday evening. This will stick around until the end of our forecasting period. Moisture levels are low for Monday and will not increase until Tuesday evening. The arrival of the moisture coincides with the vorticity levels. However, we will be near de-saturation into Wednesday evening.

At the 700 MB level, omega is low for Monday but then increases in conjunction with the arrival of upper level moisture. With both present, we think Wednesday 12Z to 21Z would be the best time for rain in the CWA. However, this could change if the SW moves northward. Along the Missouri and Arkansas border, there are higher levels of omega. The movement of this system could change the amount of rainfall mid-Missouri receives. Moisture levels are low for Monday but increase significantly late Tuesday evening. This will also stick around till the end of our forecast period.

Near the surface, there is Cold Air Advection following a cold front that will pass through Monday evening. This front will bring an end to our brief warming trend from the past weekend. This will bring more seasonable temperatures for the rest of the week. This front is associated with a low pressure system that is moving through the upper great lakes region. We do not expect any rainfall with this particular front due to the lack of moisture. As the CAA moves in, before the passing of our shortwave on Tuesday, Warm Air Advection occurs due to the change of winds from coming out of the North to the South. Moisture begins to arrive by 12Z Wednesday and stays until the end of our forecast period.

At the surface, low pressure continues to move out of mid-Missouri through much of Monday as a cold front passes through tonight. This will bring back seasonable temperatures for the rest of the week. The shortwave then arrives late into Tuesday evening and will pass through mid-Missouri by the end of our forecast period. Model soundings show upper levels beginning to saturate by 0Z Wednesday. However, there is a wide dry pocket that stays between 700 MB and 925 MB. As the evening progresses, these levels will slowly saturate before becoming close to fully saturated by 12Z. This continues through the end of our forecast period. SREF plume readings agree with model soundings with the beginning of the showers occurring early Wednesday morning. Model runs show totals between .25-.5 inches of rain with the SREF and NBM forecasting totals slightly closer to the half inch total. We predict rainfall in the range of .25-.5 inches for totals.


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