Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
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Happy St. Patty’s Day Tigers! A pesky leprechaun may have come through last night with a cold front in its wake, dropping temperatures into the 20s overnight! Today won’t be much better with a high in the low 40s, windy, and the possibility for some flurries overnight! Expect a cold weekend with a high in the low 30s on Saturday, but winds can make that temperature feel even colder - in the 20s! Sunday will be warmer with a high in the low 40s on Sunday and calm winds. Overnight low temperatures should be in the low 20s. But fear not! The weekend may be cold, but it will be sunny! Stay warm this weekend tigers, spring is almost here!
Forecasters: Allen, Sallot, McGuire
Date Issued: 03/17/2023 10:00 AM CDT
The main weather activity we’re looking at this weekend is the cold, dry airmass that moves into our forecast region on Saturday. The NAM and GFS were both used for this forecast as they both agreed on the position of the high-pressure system and were the same for almost all of the high and low temperatures during the forecast period.
At 250mb on Friday 12z, we are at the bottom of a trough that has a low-pressure system centered over the MN Canada border. This low moves into the Great Lakes region and into Canada as the trough moves eastward. From Friday 12z the Jetstream moves to the southeast out of MO throughout the forecast period until Monday 0z where it is only seen in the bootheel of the state. On Sunday 9z a ridge moves into MO, bringing the start of a high-pressure system and a cold dry air mass.
At 500mb there is a line of vorticity on Friday 12z that cuts through the southern half of the CONUS, however it stays to the south of our region. On Saturday 9z vorticity advects down from the IA, NE region into MO and on Sunday 15z increased vorticity moves across Mid-MO as the trough moves out and a ridge moves into MO.
At 700mb moisture enters northern MO on Saturday 3z and leaves by Saturday 12z. Possible flurries are predicted at about Saturday 6z as soundings show saturation at -10℃ for both the NAM and the GFS and the wet bulb is under 0℃ from 700mb down to the surface at this time. After the moisture moves out at Saturday 12z the atmosphere is dry for the rest of the forecast period as a large ridge moves into MO.
At 850mb there is CAA from Friday 12z to Sun 3z when it transitions to WAA from Sunday 3z to Sunday 21z. This will help increase our temperatures just a little bit on Sunday when we will get up to the high 30s low 40s. Early Saturday morning we will get wrap-around moisture from the low-pressure system that came through on Thursday and since the moisture is coming from the “comma head” region of the system this supports our prediction of possible flurries at Saturday 6z.
Surface winds on Friday show wind speeds of 15 knots from the northwest from 12z to 21z, causing a wind chill of about 32℉. On Saturday from 15z to 21z the surface winds reach 15 knots in our region with a wind chill of 19℉.
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