Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
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Discussion: High pressure will remain over our area for a couple days. Tuesday night rain is expected, with precipitation totals ranging from .25'-.5'. Wednesday will be calm while another round of rain is expected Thursday. Precipitation totals will range from .1'-.25'.
Forecasters: Simmons, Meier
Date Issued: 03/07/2023 10:00 AM CST
Average temperatures are forecasted for the entire week. Easterly flow is expected which will bring our temperatures to about average for this time of the year. Both the GFS and NAM were in agreement about the timing of the rain passage, so a mixture of the NAM and GFS was used for this forecast. There are a couple of weak shortwaves that move through our area which will bring us precipitation chances this week.
In the upper-level of the atmosphere, a strong ridge sits over the central US for most of the work week. A very weak shortwave passes through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This weak shortwave will bring us precipitation chances for Wednesday morning. Another weak shortwave will pass Thursday bringing more chances for precipitation for Thursday. Very little upper air divergence is expected since the strong ridge will not allow for much divergence. However, the shortwave that passes through Thursday will bring some areas of divergence through the area. This divergence will not be very strong. With such little amounts of divergence, thunderstorms are not likely and the rain will be mostly stratiform precipitation.
In the middle-level of the atmosphere, the same ridge will dominate for the majority of the week. However, a small band of vorticity will pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This band of vorticity will "kick" the atmosphere into motion setting up our rain chances for early Wednesday morning. Moisture along with omega will build in early Wednesday morning which will add to our chances of precipitation. This moisture will not stay for long as it will exit the region at 12Z Wednesday. Vorticity advection occurs north of the CWA Wednesday night, but central Missouri will not see any of the vorticity. However, moisture and omega build in again early Thursday morning, bolstering chances for precipitation. This moisture and omega will remain in the CWA until Thursday evening when it all leaves.
In the lower-level of the atmosphere, moisture can be seen advecting into the region overnight Tuesday. All of the moisture will stay over the CWA the entire week as relative humidity stays in the high 90s to 100%. Rain chances begin Wednesday at 9Z. There will not be thunder as CAPE values remain at zero and the LI is over 20. There is some omega which will make the rain heavy at times. The total amount of precipitation that is expected ranges from .25'-.5'. The rain will move out of the area by 18Z Wednesday. The next rain chance will be for early Thursday morning lasting until Thursday evening. Again, no thunder is forecasted for the same reason as before. The rain will not be as heavy since omega values are not as high as they were before. The total amount of rainfall forecasted is 0.1-0.25."
A ridge will dominate over the central US for the majority of the forecast. The rain chances come from two weak shortwaves that pass over Missouri. The rain will not be too heavy since there is not a substantial amount of lift. Rainfall totals for the entire week range from 0.35-0.75."
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