Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

 

Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 32

      
 

 

Saturday: Rainy and windy conditions. High: 44

 

Saturday Night: Slight chance of snow flurries mixed with rain. Low: 36

  

 

Sunday: Few clouds. High:48

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 26

 

  

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Discussion:

Cloudy conditions continue to build leading up to a rainfall event on Saturday afternoon of approximately 0.5". A low-level jet will bring windy conditions in from the southwest at the same time. Saturday night may introduce some snow flurries mixed in with the rain if temperatures trend lower at the surface. There will most likely be no snow accumulation at the surface, however. Conditions will clear up into Sunday with increasing temperatures.

- Sausen

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Forecasters: Thomas, Sausen, Mcguire

Date Issued: 03/010/2023 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

A large scale trough, centered over the Great Lakes region, looks to advect east overnight tonight, reaching the Atlantic coast by tomorrow morning. In its wake, a significantly dry airmass will sit over our area until at least tonight. This should leave room for our next system, which currently sits over the Pacific Northwest, to make its way over. The first few bits of deeper moisture looks to overspread the CWA by Saturday afternoon, with a few smaller disturbances noticeable out ahead of the frontal passage.
    The main frontal passage looks to move in by Saturday around noon, and exit by Sunday morning. Some weaker vertical velocity is noted with the main passage of the front, and this is likely due to a coupling of the upper and lower level jet, both present around the forecast area. PWATs sit around 0.7 for the majority of the front’s influence, and GEFS plumes center around the 0.5 inch mark for QPF, which leads me to believe that rain will be light/moderate. Sounding analysis shows a largely near-freezing profile with no significant warm nose and an above freezing surface layer, which is generally unsupportive of anything but rain, though if the temperature at the surface shifts a few degrees colder, some mixed precipitation wouldn’t be out of the question. Have added chance PoPs for snow to the forecast to account for this possibility.
    By Sunday morning, the moisture and forcing should be well out of our area, though some lingering cloudiness could occur with a bit of wraparound moisture, though it shouldn’t last too long, as a surface ridge shunts the system farther east during the day Sunday, and the ridge should be our dominant feature by Sunday night.
- Thomas