Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Thursday Night: Showers. Low: 41

 

      

Friday: Rain. High: 46

 

Friday Night: Showers. Low: 40

Saturday: Rain then clearing. High: 56

Saturday Night: Chances of showers increase. Low: 37

 

  

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Discussion: 

Cloudy and rainy conditions remain the trend to finish out the rest of our week. By the weekend, more rain is expected with totals possibly exceeding over an inch!

-Labit 

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Forecasters: Labit, Easter

Date Issued: 03/23/2023 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The primary focus of this forecast will be the continuation of rain as we go into the rest of this week and into the weekend. When comparing current observations and the track of the cold front, the NAM has positioning, strength, and surface temperatures more accurately depicted than the GFS hence why we're using the NAM for this forecast.

A 250mb jet streak located near the Great Lakes is funneling high levels of divergence aloft into south-central Missouri late Thursday night into early Friday morning. During this same time-frame, a shortwave associated with a low-pressure system located near Kanarado, will move across this region providing lift and circulation to support the production of heavy rainfall in southern Missouri. Complete saturation at 700mb stays south of our forecasting region, the same is true at 850mb leaving us dry until moisture advects north into both the upper and lower levels by Friday afternoon. Lighter rainfall will be the result of this moisture for central Missouri and will continue throughout Friday night into Saturday. 

 

By Saturday 06z the low-pressure system will migrate into central Missouri bringing with it ample amounts of lift and circulation. As a result, this will intensify rainfall to more moderate rates. Moderate rainfall will continue until around 15z when the low moves northeast into Illinois and Indiana. SREF plumes average out approximately 1.25" of rainfall in our region while areas more south could see rainfall totals exceeding 3"+. Moisture will still remain in our region providing clouds extending past our forecasting range.

A note to future forecasters, rain chances return as a result of another low-pressure beginning to move into Kansas pushing moisture southeast into our area.

  

-Labit & Easter