Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday: Morning showers. High: 72

      

Wednesday Night: Possible thunderstorms with scattered showers. Low: 64

 

Thursday: Scattered Showers. High: 65

Thursday Night: Rain. Low: 41

Friday: Scattered showers. High: 51

 

  

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Discussion: 

It is looking to be a wet week for mid-Missourians with expected rain every day to end the work week. Morning showers on Wednesday are followed up by cloudiness and possible overnight Thunderstorms. Thursday's scattered showers will not accumulate to much until the overnight hours. Friday, again, scattered showers with low accumulations. Total accumulations throughout the forecast period is around half an inch.

-Ritsema

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Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark, Cochran

Date Issued: 03/15/2023 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

 

Problem of the Day:

 

Possible thunderstorms accompanied by hail Wednesday night. Forcing for these storms include: a band of vorticity moving northeast through mid-Missouri between 00z and 12z Thursday, slight omega overnight with a max at 09z, a low-level jet with values exceeding 60 kts, and most unstable CAPE values exceed 900J/kg between the hours of 00z and 15z. In addition, low moisture content in the upper atmosphere accompanied by strong omega values suggests strong updrafts and the formation of small hailstones reaching the ground, if any reach at all.

 

At the 300mb level, an intensifying trough is traversing its way across the CONUS. As it moves into Missouri, no upper-level divergence is present during the night Wednesday into the early hours Thursday, but small shortwaves account for divergence over mid-Missouri at 00z Friday. The trough then transitions into a slight negative tilt bringing raised divergence levels in southeastern Missouri and along the Mississippi River, missing mid-Missouri. 

 

A band of shortwave vorticity moves northeastward through Missouri on Thursday between 00z and 12z, aiding in the thunderstorm formation overnight. Vorticity max appears northeast of the CWA in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois. Friday at 00z, shortwaves move through mid-Missouri accounting for spotty, yet strong, vorticity values in mid-Missouri before moving southeast. Due to the trough, raised vorticity values will persist throughout the forecast period. 

Again, slight omega exists overnight Wednesday assisting in the formation of thunderstorms, yet no moisture exists at the 700mb level until Thursday 21z moving out by Friday 21z. Mid-Missouri will experience spotty omega which will account for higher QPFs Friday morning. 

A strong low-level jet from the southwest is situated over Missouri bringing warm moist air into the region. This jet strengthens a considerable amount overnight Wednesday with values exceeding 60 kts for a large portion of west-central Missouri. The jet diminishes, though, and winds slow down to less than 30 kts by Thursday 18z. The 850 mb level is saturated from Wednesday 15z to Thursday where it briefly dries out for a couple of hours in the morning, only to re-saturate for the rest of the forecast period. 

The track of the surface low is non-uniform as it passes over Missouri, but the track appears over southern Missouri moving east northeast. Although mid-Missouri is located to the northwest of the low center, no frozen precipitation is expected with this storm as surface temperatures are reaching into the upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday. The surface is saturated throughout the entire period suggesting low-level cloudiness throughout the end of the week. Ensemble models of 3-hour QPF outputs show heaviest rainfall will occur overnight Thursday into Friday morning, and expected accumulations are between half an inch to an inch of rain falling throughout the forecast period. 

-Ritsema