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Discussion:Once the rain has moved out Thursday night, temperatures will continue to drop with high temperatures only reaching the lower 40s for Friday. This cooling trend will continue into Saturday with wind chills feeling like the single digits/low teens.
Forecasters: Labit, Easter, Macko
Date Issued: 03/16/2023 5:00 PM CDT
The primary focus of this forecast is the ending of Thursday night's precipitation and the cold frontal passage following behind this system. After comparing surface temperatures, the timing of the cold front, and the accumulation totals, the GFS is handling temperatures and totals more closely with current observations.
A weak trough is positioned over Nebraska and Kansas which is pushing the base of a 250mb ridge out to our west late Thursday night. By Friday morning, this trough will weaken further as a jet streak developing over Joplin, Missouri and by Friday afternoon, central Missouri will shift into a more zonal flow. As a result of this shift, below average temperatures are expected Friday.
A deep Alberta Clipper low positioned closer to Wisconsin will influence a stronger 250mb jetstream by Saturday 12z. Meanwhile, at 500mb shortwave can be seen moving through the area Saturday morning which will increase circulation over central Missouri. This combined with a strong cold front and a brief period of both upper-level and lower-level moisture between Saturday 03z-09z could result in flurries. As the upper-level low begins to wrap back north around the Great Lake region, the chance of flurries will end after 09z. Some low-level will persist allowing for spotty cloud cover throughout Saturday. Following the cold frontal passage, expect closer to January-like surface temperatures and gusty conditions bringing wind chills from the single digits to the mid teens.
By Saturday night, the aforementioned low will have continued to the Canadian Northeast. With the development of a surface high pressure from the north, this will bring central Missouri back to a zonal pattern. Clear conditions are expected, but warmer temperatures will not be prevalent until the high pressure continues to move to the south.
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