Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
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Discussion:
To start the first day of spring warm temperatures and a sunny day welcome us. Moving into tomorrow and Wednesday the main focus is will be a round of rain showers throughout the day Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. The rain showers will move away and leave sunny skies with a high of 70.
-Jones
Forecasters: Herion, Jones, Aldrich
Date Issued: 03/20/2023 10:00 AM CDT
Both of the main models were off on their grasp of surface temperatures but had a good grasp on surface fronts. Due to the NAM 12's pattern of cooler mornings, we decided to use the GFS 20 for our forecast today. We also consulted the NBM and SREF Plumes for our temperature readings and precipitation forecast. Our problem of the week is rain for much of the week.
On Monday,we are in a short ridge pattern which will keep us dry and clear until the evening hours. A shortwave begins to form late in the evening which will pass into mid-Missouri on Tuesday. In the mid levels, Vorticity readings are low until the late in the evening. Clouds will move into the CWA late in the evening. The overlap between Monday evening and Tuesday morning will be when our rain chances begin. Coinciding with the low vorticity readings, Omega signatures are non-existent through Monday afternoon and evening. The 700 MB level is also dry as well. Near the surface, the Lower Level Jet continues to pass through mid-Missouri and move southward as the day progresses. The LLJ will be responsible for the warmer temperatures we will experience today. Surface winds will stay out of the south and will help bring temperatures slightly above the average for this time of year.
Tuesday is where our rain chances begin. The shortwave that builds on Monday will pass into mid-Missouri in the afternoon. While divergence is present, the strongest signatures will stay to our south. In the mid-levels, vorticity signatures increase with the passage of the shortwave with the strongest coming in the afternoon. This is when we expect the greatest chances of rain. This level is completely saturated following the shortwave with a brief time of dryness coming in the evening before a second wave of moisture comes in the late evening/early morning hours of Wednesday. At the 700 MB level, Omega signatures coincide with Vorticity and moisture proving that the afternoon will be our best time for heavier precipitation. However, it will all move out by the late evening. Near the surface, the LLJ will continue to advect warm air into the CWA. It will be the primary fuel for the shortwave that will pass through the day. Clouds will continue to move into mid-Missouri and it should begin to rain during the morning hours. Unlike the upper levels, clouds will stick around through the evening and into the morning hours of Wednesday. Due to the rain, temperatures will stay in the mid-forties throughout the day and evening. Model soundings show complete saturation throughout the day but several severe weather metrics do no show a chance of severe weather. This system will likely bring showers with a potential for some heavier rain throughout the day. Totals for this event will be in the range of .25 in to .5 in.
For Wednesday, a jet streak begins to move into mid-Missouri. Divergence signatures are weak but we believe there will be a chance of passing showers throughout the day. At the 500 mb level, vorticity fluctuates throughout the day with the strongest readings coming in the morning hours. However, saturation occurs only through the early morning hours before drying up by the afternoon. Coinciding with the early morning 500 MB saturation, Omega also is at its highest in the early morning. This will be our best chance of rain. This level also dries as the front passes. Near the surface, the LLJ will continue to be over mid-Missouri and continue the warming trend. Clouds will stick around for most of the day with a chance of passing showers through the morning and afternoon. We expect trace amounts to about a .1 of an inch falling from these showers. Showers will continue in the morning but temperatures will continue to increase by the afternoon. We can see temperatures break 70 in some places in mid-Missouri.
Future shifts should keep an eye on the developing trough over Nevada and California as it will be our next weather-maker. Early model soundings have shown the potential for thunderstorms with this developing system.
-Herion
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