Friday, March 3, 2023

 Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


Friday Night:
Mostly clear. Low: 33


Mostly cloudy. High: 60

Saturday Night
 Increasing clouds. Low: 38

Decreasing clouds and gusty. High: 64


Sunday Night:
Mostly clear. Low: 53


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With Friday morning's system exiting the area, temps look to climb for the next few days, with intermittent periods of clouds and sun, and some gusty winds Sunday. Highs in the 60's and lows moving up from the 30's all the way to the lower 50's by Sunday night should make for some pleasant early spring outside weather.

- Thomas

Forecasters: Thomas, Sausen, McGuire

Date Issued: 03/03/2023 04:15 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

Starting off with satellite observations, mid-Missouri is currently in a return flow from the cutoff low that passed over last night. Two layers of clouds remain over the CWA, giving partly cloudy to overcast conditions. This forecast is utilizing the 12Z run of the GFS due to its superior temperature plots over the NAM. The focus of this forecast is on the rising temperatures and windy conditions for Sunday afternoon into Monday.

At 250mb, the passing of a negatively-tilted longwave trough leaves the CWA in a zonal flow. Polar jet stream positions itself overhead and fluctuates south to north through the forecast period. The right exit region of a horizontal jet streak will position itself over the CWA starting Monday at 03Z, which will provide some upper-level divergence.

500mb winds remain in a zonal flow pattern throughout the forecast period. Wind speeds maximize at 75-80kts due to the polar jet being positioned above. A couple spots of high vorticity make their way over the CWA on Saturday 12-18Z following the cutoff low.

AT 700mb, a secondary wave of moisture arrives Saturday 15-21Z providing some cloud cover, but lacks any significant lifting mechanism to support precipitation. Winds are of a west-northwesterly component at the beginning of the forecast period. They then shift to a southwesterly component with the passage of a ridge on Sunday 09Z.

800mb winds switch to a westerly component from Saturday 06Z to Sunday 06Z. Winds then shift to a southerly flow with a LLJ with maximum winds of 60kts, bringing WAA over the CWA for the rest of the forecast period through Monday 12Z. RH values of 90-95% approach from the south Monday 00-03Z. Surface winds remain relatively calm until they shift south Sunday 18Z, where wind speeds lay consistently in the 15-20kt range. Solenoid formation at the surface in combination with the aggressive southerly wind further supports WAA over the region through the rest of the forecast period.

There is significant spread on the NBM for this forecast period, so we decided to use the median NBM temperatures in combination with the deterministic GFS output to decide on high and low temperatures. NBM output was used to forecast cloud cover.


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