Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Friday: Overcast and rainy. High: 44

 

 

Friday Night: Decreasing clouds. Low: 33

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High: 60

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 40

 

 

Sunday: Cloudy, then mostly sunny. High: 66

 

 

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Discussion:

Friday will be rainy and overcast throughout the day, clearing up by the evening. Temperatures will remain in the 40s Friday with a low in the low 30s Friday night. The rest of the weekend will be warm and dry as the sun comes out Saturday and winds from the south bring warm air on Sunday. Expect highs in the 60s on Saturday and Sunday! Enjoy the weekend tigers!


- Sallot

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Forecasters: Allen, Sallot, McGuire

Date Issued: 03/03/2023 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

The main weather activity we’re looking at this weekend is the rainy conditions that first appeared Thursday evening and will continue into Friday afternoon. There is a Wind Advisory to the east of Boone County from Montgomery and Gasconade into St. Louis, and Flood Warnings to our south starting Laclede and Texas county. In Boone County we have Hazardous Weather Outlook, meaning the storm on Friday is expected to produce heavy rainfall before the afternoon ends. This forecast was mostly created using the NAM as it corresponded with the RAP more than the GFS did. Something to make note of is that the storm that is affecting the MO and the southern states moves out from MO a little faster in the NAM than in the GFS. Due to the speed of the system, we are not concerned out the Hazardous Weather Outlook in Boone County.

At 250mb there is a negatively tilted trough that moves across MO throughout Friday morning. High values of wind divergence move ahead of a low-pressure system that enters MO from the west at 15z and is centered over our region at 18z. The low will move out of our forecast region at about Saturday 00z. For the rest of the forecast period, we see zonal flow with a ridge forming over MO Sunday 00z. The jetstream is over MO for almost all of our forecast period, with the exception of when the low-pressure system in over MO on Friday.

At 500mb vorticity is advected into and out of MO from the beginning of our forecast period at Friday 12z to Saturday 6z as it moves with the low-pressure system. At Saturday 15z there is some vorticity that moves across our region. After this, there is no vorticity entering MO until after our forecast period at Monday 3z.

At 700mb increased moisture covers MO from Friday 12z to Saturday 00z. We also see some moisture at Saturday 15z to Sunday 6z across Mid-MO, which is the same time we see increased that vorticity at 500mb.

At the surface there is a trough moving through MO which ushers in the rain we will see until about 0z on Saturday. There is a high-pressure system that moves into MO from AR Saturday 3z-18z. When this system moves east on Sunday it works together with the low-pressure system in ND and SD to give our region a southerly return flow which will help increase our high for Sunday afternoon.  ­

-Allen