Wednesday: Clear. High: 61
Wednesday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 48
Thursday Night: Rain. Low: 28
Friday: Clear and Breezy. High: 40
Prepare for rain Thursday and chilly temperatures Friday as a cold front moves through mid-Missouri Thursday afternoon. This cold front will bring light rain Thursday morning which will persist until Thursday night. Strong winds from the north will then cool our overnight temperatures down to below freezing and will work to keep our daytime temperatures in the 30s and 40s on Friday.
Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark, Cochran
Date Issued: 03/15/2023 10:00AM CDT
For this forecast, a blend of the GFS and NAM models were used, as there was not much discrepancy between them with regards to the passage of the cold front, the location of the associated low pressure center, the distribution of low- and mid-level moisture, and the upper-level wind pattern. Ensemble guidance was also considered for the timing of the precipitation Thursday, with which there was consensus.
Wednesday will be clear and warm due to a 300mb ridge located over MO throughout the entire day and southerly surface winds of up to 20 kt. At 850 mb, a low-level jet will move into western MO which will help to provide moisture for rain Thursday. This low-level jet will travel eastward and intensify to around 70 kt over the KS-MO border Thursday 06z as low-level clouds move into mid-MO, formed from the moisture advected north by the low-level jet.
Thursday 21z to Friday 00z will see the passage of a cold front associated with a low-pressure system located over the Great Lakes. Behind this cold front there will be strong CAA due to strong northerly winds coupled with a tight solenoid pattern at the surface. Ahead of and along this cold front will be moisture, omega, and vorticity which will produce rain across MO Thursday.
Due to widespread areas of vorticity and omega moving into mid-MO Thursday 09-12z coincident with moisture at the 700 mb and 850 mb levels, rain will begin Thursday morning around 12z. Due to two dry layers, however, one around 800 mb and one from 850 mb to the surface, the morning rain may be light until the dry layers saturate through evaporating precipitation. After the dry layers saturate, however, rain will be moderate intensity from Thursday 15z to Friday 00z due to deep saturation, PWat values above 1", and higher amounts of omega and vorticity. After Friday 00z, the atmosphere desaturates as the low pressure system moves east, bringing with it the moisture that helped to provide mid-MO with rain.
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