Monday, March 13, 2023



Monday Night:
Decreasing Clouds. Low: 25


Mostly Sunny. High: 46


Tuesday Night:
Mostly Clear
. Low: 31

Increasing Clouds. High: 61

Wednesday Night:
Cloudy with spotty showers late. Low: 48


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Discussion: Cold and cloudy conditions today will give way to warmer and sunny weather on Tuesday as we reach back into the mid-40s! The warming trend continues Wednesday, but clouds will begin to increase during the day. Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, light showers make their return before our big weather-maker on Thursday.



Forecasters: Shaw, Russell

Date Issued: 03/13/2023 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion:
    The upper-level trough responsible for our wet weather this past weekend continues to move off into the Mid-Atlantic region, where it will create some major wintery impacts later this week. Meanwhile, low-level moisture left in its wake has kept mid-MO under cloudy conditions Monday, though staunch NW winds on the backside of the low will erode this layer overnight heading into Tuesday morning. Due to the dissipation of this layer, effective radiational cooling will allow for lows to dip into the middle 20s by daybreak Tuesday.
    A developing surface high will slide down from IA Tuesday morning, keeping skies mostly sunny throughout the day; concurrently, winds will shift to a more ESE pattern, warming us up into the 40s. The upper-level pattern at this time is rather quiet, with a sizable zone of diffluence and resultant weak winds situated over MO. By Tuesday night, ridging in the mid and upper levels begins to encroach on MO, pushing the surface high down into the Tennessee Valley.

    Although upper-level flow on Wednesday will remain out of the WNW with the passage of a rather paltry jet streak, surface winds continue to remain southerly on the back side of the aforementioned high pressure system. Mid-level troughing and an associated surface low move off of the Colorado Rockies, deepening rapidly as they enter KS. This will further enhance southerly flow across the region and, aided by a developing LLJ, will create impressive WAA across central MO by Wednesday afternoon. As a result, low and mid-level clouds will increase during the day along with temperatures, which will top out in the low 60s!

    By early Thursday morning, the surface low will be located in eastern KS, with mid-level vorticity and upper-level divergence increasing over MO in its advance. Elongated moisture transport vectors show the presence of moderate moisture advection, and the lower levels will saturate as the morning progresses, as indicated by forecast soundings. Generally unimpressive forcing well ahead of the cold-frontal zone should limit us to nothing more than a few spotty showers during the morning hours, though these will increase in coverage and intensity as the front gets closer. Future shifts will want to monitor the progression of this frontal system, as it will likely deliver measurable rain and possibly some snow by the end of the week!


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