Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 38
Friday: Mostly cloudy. High: 42
Friday Night: Heavy rainfall for majority of the day. Low: 33
Saturday: Mostly clear. High: 56
Saturday Night: Mostly sunny. Low: 36
Rain will move into our area overnight Thursday. These showers will linger until Friday afternoon with a clearing sky. Temperatures will warm after as we get into the weekend!
Forecasters: Hefner, Macko, Samson
Date Issued: 03/01/2023 5:00 PM CST
After taking observations and comparing to the NAM and GFS, we agreed more with the GFS due to its accuracy with tracking the low-pressure system over the southwestern United States. Furthermore, the timing of precipitation occurring and the amount are closer to the SREF mean than the NAM.
Our main concern during this forecast period is the progression of a low-pressure system which will be impacting central Missouri overnight Thursday into Friday afternoon. Currently, the trough is positively tilted over New Mexico but as it moves northeast into Friday between 09z-12z it becomes more negatively tilted. This along with having the greatest values of divergence aloft and vorticity in central Missouri could result in our heaviest rainfall. While this means that there is circulation in the atmosphere, our chances of thunderstorms are low because of the small temperature gradient involved with the passage of the low.
Both upper- and mid-level moisture builds into our region by Friday 00z turning conditions overcast. By Friday 09z, the low pressure is positioned over the extreme southeast corner of Oklahoma influencing high moisture transport vectors. Conditions begin to clear due to zonal flow building into the region with moisture decreasing with the northeastern movement of the low.
While the southern United States is expected to experience stronger and more severe storms, areas in southern Missouri are projected to have significant rainfall totals with flood warnings already in effect. While the greatest concern is to the south, areas north of I-70 could also see considerable precipitation. SREF ensembles have high confidence of rain totals between 1.5" - 2" of liquid precipitation. Chances of snowfall are low with the GFS track, however if temperatures get cold enough we could see mixed precipitation as the low moves out of our area by Friday 12z. If mixed precipitation does occur, it'll be brief, associated with the wrap around moisture.- Labit
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