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Temperatures today will continue to be well above average as the front is still to our northwest. High temperatures today will be in the upper 80's under mostly sunny skies. The rain will remain to our northwest as well, so no chances of rain today. Wednesday afternoon will be more of the same with high temperatures in the mid 80's under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. The front will start making its way into the Mid-Missouri area Wednesday night which will bring the potential for showers and thunderstorms. Winds will also begin to shift out of the northwest which will bring cooler temperatures overnight. Fall temperatures will make an appearance with clearing skies, dropping humidity and high temperatures in the mid to upper 60's.
Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, and Munley
Issued: 10:00 a.m. ; October 1, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
For the morning we will be using the GFS with SREF and GEFS guidance.
Another day of above average temperatures for the forecast area today. A few clouds out this morning but other than that fairly calm conditions. High pressure still sits to the southeast of the state in Eastern Tennessee and a stationary front to our northwest stretching from the Great Lakes to Eastern Colorado. Along the stationary front is the main concern for the potential for severe weather today but is not going to affect us here in Mid-Missouri. Today southwesterly flow continues, weak warm air advection will be in place ahead of a surface low off to our west but with being on the outer edges of the influence of high pressure to the southeast and winds at 850mb are from 15-25kts at times, a breezy day is in store for the area with winds from the sustained at 10-15mph gusting to 25mph at times from the S/SW. Tonight the stationary front does ever closer to the area, we are expecting clouds to begin to build in ahead of the front overnight.
Wednesday a cold front is expected to move through the area but will take it's time. A surface low does travel along the frontal boundary. As the cold front does move through, the system asssociated with the front does push off the stubborn high pressure in the southeast off to the east. Timing of the frontal for now is expected to be late Wednesday night with the overnight FROPA and lack of upper air support, any showers or storms we do get is suspected to be scattered in nature overnight Wednesday and the severe threat does look low for Wednesday night. Primary concerns is for flooding but in northwestern parts of Missouri and southeastern Nebraska.
Thursday post FROPA brings fall-like temperatures to the forecast area finally, with skies clearing to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching into the upper 60s to low 70s.