Thursday, October 10, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night - Cloudy. Showers ending early. Low: 40-44

Friday - Skies clearing in the afternoon. A morning shower is possible. Breezy. High: 48-52

Friday Night - Clear skies. Breezy. Low: 32-36


Saturday - Clear. Breezy. High: 56-60

 Sunday - Clear. High: 62-66

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Skies have begun partially clearing here in Columbia. Rain will continue to pus off to the east. More clouds are expected to build in overnight. A strong cold front is expected to pass overnight Thursday into Friday. A lingering shower behind the front is not out of the question for early Friday morning. Sunshine returns Friday afternoon as skies clear, but temperatures may struggle to reach the mid 50s. Clear skies will persist for the remainder of the work week and into Homecoming weekend. While Columbia will see beautiful weather, it may be time to break out the winter coats. Parade time could see temperatures in the mid 30s!

Forecasters: Owens, Travis
Issued:  5:00p.m. ; October 10,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
A strong low pressure system currently over the Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska borders will bring with it a strong cold front that will drastically affect the region's temperatures for the remainder of the forecast period. Went primarily with the GFS/GEFS and SREF for long term. Consulted CAMs for additional rainfall this evening.

Sanborn Field recorded 1.44 inches of rain today. As the WF pushes ever more slightly north, skies may partially clear and temperatures will finally have a chance to rise. According to radar reflectivity, convection is firing in far eastern KS and will push east as the day progresses. If this line of thunderstorms is able to hold together (as is favored by the HRRR) Columbia may see additional rainfall later this evening. Looking at GFS 250-hPa height and winds, a large area of increased divergence out ahead of the greater longwave will continue to move off to the northeast ahead of the aforementioned surface low. As the forecast period progresses, GFS wants the longwave to progress further eastward eventually clipping mid-Missouri before ultimately retreating northward slightly. By the end of the period, a jet streak will be parked right to the south of Missouri, allowing for much cooler air to filter in and mix down to the surface once the front passes. GFS 500-hPa heights and vorticity show the effects of the longwave much clearer. A strong and large area of circulation associated with the trough will move overhead during the day Friday. Moisture will continue to push off to the east as well as suggested by 700-hPa heights, RH and omega. Winds at 850 will shift out of the NW over night Thursday into Friday as the 0 C isotherm fully envelops mid-Missouri. With all this in mind, FROPA appears to occur just after 06z Friday. Looking at MSLP and thickness, the GFS wants the surface front to pass over Columbia around 03z Friday.

After the front passes, MSLP and thickness show extremely tight solenoids set up over Missouri behind the front. Strong CAA will begin Thursday night and continue for the day Friday. This will keep Friday's daytime high in the upper 40s (lower 50s at best). The column is slower to dry out according to GFS soundings as low level moisture and lift remains into Friday morning. The result is a possible shower lingering into early Friday morning. After the sun comes up Friday, GFS soundings depict a complete drying of the column and clear skies will be expected. Soundings indicate winds in excess of 20 kts at the surface so breezy conditions are expected.

Friday Night will see much cooler temperature. Being the first clear night after FROPA, this is to be expected. Clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling. The only thing working against strong cooling is the winds. GFS soundings continue to show winds exceeding 20 kts. This may hinder cooling to its full potential. Regardless Columbia will see morning lows bottoming out in the mid 30s. If winds are calmer than models are suggesting, temperatures may be able to reach the lower 30s and quite possible the upper 20s. Beginning Saturday, CAA will cease and a gradual warming trend will ensue eventually reaching the mid 60s by Sunday.

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