Friday, October 11, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night - Clear Skies. Low: 30-34


Saturday - Clear Skies. Breezy.  High: 57-61


 Saturday Night - Clear Skies. Low: 38-42

Sunday - Clear Skies. High: 63-67

 Monday - Clear Skies. High: 68-72

Thanks to for the icons!


 This homecoming weekend, the cold front is moving out of  Missouri.  We expect skies to clear out just in time for the parade.  The maximum temperature for Saturday ranges from 57 to 61 degrees.  It will be a breezy day with winds of 20 knots.  We expect no rainfall.  On Sunday, our temperature is expected to reach a high of 63-67 degrees accompanied with clear skies and no rainfall.  This increasing temperature is expected to persist into Monday as we expect a high temperature of 68-72 degrees.  
Forecasters: Taylor, Balkissoon, Heaven, Travis
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; October 11,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

This forecast period, Columbia will see very winter-like temperatures. A strong October CF has moved through the CONUS bringing in the mP airmass from Canada. The main focus of this forecast period will be the unseasonably cold temperatures already invading the region. Went primarily with GFS guidance; consulted GEFS and SREF for temperatures.

When viewing the GFS model run of  250-hPa Height Wind Divergence, we see that , throughout this weekend, the upper level trough passes from the north west and goes to the east of Missouri.  On Monday, however, the region will be under the influence of a ridge.  Even though, at this level we have conditions conducive for cloud formation representative of the divergence aloft, in the analysis of the 700-hPa relative humidity map, cold dry air coming from Canada is bringing with it low relative humidity values and thus no cloud cover.  North of us though, the cold air is wrapping around the low pressure system, thus forming a comma cloud in which Columbia sits in the dry slot.  From the GFS Skew-T analysis, this is verified, as dew point and temperature values over the column of the atmosphere indicates no saturation.  For this reason, we expect no rainfall throughout this weekend.

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