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An unseasonably-warm weather pattern continues out ahead of an approaching storm system. For tonight, low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Clouds will increase. On Wednesday, we anticipate one last day of heat, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Wednesday night will see a good opportunity for thunderstorms as a cold front passes through, especially in the late evening and early overnight hours. Some of the storms could be on the strong side. Lows Wednesday night should bottom out in the mid to upper 60s beneath mostly cloudy skies. For Thursday, temperatures will be a fair bit cooler as highs struggle to reach the upper 60s to near 70. Friday will be similar to Thursday, with highs a few degrees cooler - in the low to mid 60s - and mostly cloudy skies.
Forecasters: Heaven, Vanderpool
Issued: 4:30 p.m. ; October 1, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Given current WPC analysis, 12Z GFS will be the primary model used, with 12Z GEFS and 15Z SREF used as supplements.
Tuesday night will see clouds start to build in ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will stay near Columbia through Wednesday night before it moves out. The cold front is being slowed down significantly, with it becoming quasi stationary Tuesday night. The low will finally be able to move again late Wednesday after a relatively weak surface low traverses along it up to near the Great Lakes. Most recent guidance seems to be in good agreement of frontal passage around midnight, which means our temperatures will be allowed to get exceptionally high once again. Dew points will also be high, as moisture out ahead of the front will linger over Columbia until the front passes. There is some indication that these storms on Wednesday night could be severe. Currently, a line of storms is expected. SREF DCAPE>1000 plots indicate 50-70% chance of DCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg. SPC currently also has Columbia in the marginal risk, which seems adequate. Soundings indicate that these storms will be elevated. CAA will not begin immediately after the cold front passes; CAA will begin during the day on Thursday, shortly after sunrise. This CAA will be fairly average, with a couple solenoids over Missouri. Clouds are expected to stay overhead through Friday, as soundings indicate good mid level saturation all day Thursday and Friday. CAA will cease on Friday, as a surface high to our north will move to be northeast of us.