Monday, October 14, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Clear skies. High: 68-72

Monday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 52-56

Tuesday - Cloudy morning isolated shower, becoming clear in the afternoon. High: 66-70

Tuesday Night - Clear. Low: 38-42

Wednesday - Mostly Sunny. High: 54-58

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High pressure has been dominating our weather recently as we've seen clear skies and seasonal temperatures. This will continue into today with more clear conditions and high temperatures near 70. Tonight will be a warmer night before cooler air filters in along a cold front tomorrow. The cold front allows for a slight chance for isolated showers before noon on Tuesday, but sky conditions will clear by the afternoon. High pressure sets in yet again on Wednesday allowing for mostly clear skies, but cooler temperatures after the frontal passage.
Forecasters: Clemons, Lieberman, and Hirsch
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; October 14,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

For this forecast period, a general model blend was used, per WPC model discussion. 
At start of the forecast, we are in the left exit region of the 250 mb jet. Westerly flow exists from this layer down to 850 mb. The main feature on the surface map is a strong low over central Canada with surface cold front draping across the Ohio river valley into central MO. From central MO extending northwest, is a warm front right over CoMO. 11 Z RAP soundings indicate we are under a slight inversion at the surface which we expect to rapidly deteriorate.

The models depict this warm front moving northeast over us bringing warm air into the region for the day while temperatures remain seasonal as we return to southerly flow. This is shown in the 850 mb map where winds shift to be out of the south. At the surface, a 1020 mb high pressure located over Iowa will keep us under sunny conditions. Overnight, the weather remains calm as upper level westerly flow continues. However by 09 Z, GFS and NAM depict a cold front move through the region. Skew-Ts from 09-18 Z show low level moisture up to about to about 800 mb  coupled with weak omega at about -5 mb/s. This front provides the initiation point for storm development with areas southeast having greatest potential for shower activity but we couldn't rule it out. SREF indicates only about 0.05" of total precip over us so the odds for rain aren't high. Once FROPA occurs, rapid clearing is expected for Tuesday afternoon as indicated in the Skew-Ts. Models struggle with high temperatures on Tuesday due to the clouds and timing of the front with GFS having 62 and NAM have 68 so we have erred on the warm side with a delayed timing but future forecasts should pay attention to this as we may be too warm. Temperatures however are in agreement for Wednesday being in the mid 50s as the cold air fully sets in for the day.

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