Monday, October 28, 2019

Monday  - Overcast. High: 46-50

Monday Night - Rain, otherwise cloudy. Low: 36-40

Tuesday - Partly sunny. High: 44-48

Tuesday Night - Rain. Cloudy. Low: 38-42

Wednesday - Rain. Cloudy. High: 44-48

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We are seeing a drastic change in our weather from yesterday into today. A cold front passed through late last night bringing cloud cover and cold temperatures. From now until Wednesday, we are expecting an increase in activity associated with a low pressure system. This will bring a few rounds of precipitation in our forecast period. Later tonight we will see rain and more overcast conditions. Tuesday some of the clouds will clear up and we will have partly sunny sky conditions. However, clouds will return Tuesday night as well as rain that will persist through Wednesday.

Forecasters: Clemons, Lieberman, Hirsch
Issued:  10:00 am; October 28,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
About 03Z today a slow moving cold front passed over Columbia MO. This allowed for cool air to move in dropping temperatures about 10 degrees Fahrenheit overnight as overcast cloud cover set in. 

Cloud cover will persist throughout the day. Soundings suggest low level moisture between 850-900mb indicating a stratus deck. Beginning around 03Z tomorrow, saturation occurs up to around 600mb. Omega values are weak (<-10mb/s) and CAPE and CIN values are practically nonexistent. Therefore the threat of convection is low. However, we do expect to see rain from 03Z to 09Z. The persistent cloud cover suggests a small variation between the high and low temperatures in our forecast period.

The effects of the cold front begin to wear off during Tuesday. However, to the west of the forecast area, there is a cut-off low pressure system forming in a trough over the Rocky Mountains. Vorticity at 500mb suggests cyclogenesis over Colorado and Utah. This low will make its way towards Columbia MO and FROPA is predicted for Wednesday. 

Expect a break in the precipitation from 09Z Tuesday until around 00Z on Wednesday. This rain event also suggests little to no convection. However, Omega is maximized at 700mb which will give enough lift for rain. While temperatures are within 5 degrees Celsius of the freezing point, the 540 line remains to our Northwest for this forecast period. The GFS suggests this line will move South of Columbia on Thursday. Future forecasters should monitor its progression and the possibility of the first, albeit light, snowfall of the season.

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