Monday, October 14, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night - Clouds building in the late evening. Low: 52-56

Tuesday - Cloudy with morning isolated showers, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 66-70

Tuesday Night - Clouds clearing. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - Partly Cloudy. High: 52-56
Thursday - Mostly Sunny. High:  58-62

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Clouds will begin to build into the area late Monday evening, contributing to a low of 52-56 and isolated showers in Tuesday morning. By the afternoon, the clouds should start to clear out, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon with a high of 66-70. Tuesday night, the rest of the clouds will clear out and we will drop to a low of 36-40. Wednesday, we will see partly cloudy skies and a high of 52-56, and Thursday it will be mostly sunny with a high of 58-62.
Forecasters: Hatch, Munley, Heaven
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; October 14,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Current WPC discussion indicates the 12Z GFS being too fast with the trough over the northern CONUS, and thus the 18Z NAM 40 will be the model of choice for this forecast, using the 15Z SREF as a supplement for temperature forecasting. 

Late Monday will continue to see Columbia in the warm sector of a surface low based to our northwest, over the central plains.  WAA is fairly strong at the time of this forecast being written, with temperatures still increasing.  Cold frontal passage is expected to happen early Tuesday morning.  Some rain is possible overnight Monday into Tuesday, but rain chances seem fairly isolated.  Soundings indicate moisture only fairly close to the surface, with PWAT values under an inch for the most part.  Clouds will begin to clear out Tuesday, along with CAA not starting until the afternoon.  These two things will lead to a higher than average high temperature for the day Tuesday, but allow a fairly cold low temperature Tuesday night.  CAA will only really begin after peak heating has ended, at which point temperatures will drop fairly quickly, in combination with clear skies.  Wednesday will see a close to average high temperature, with some clouds hanging around during the day.  WAA is expected to start during the evening on Wednesday, as a surface high moves off to our east.  This high will be working in conjunction with a surface low to strengthen this WAA, which will be fairly strong due to this.  A decent increase in temperatures of 6 degrees is expected Thursday with this WAA.  Little cloud cover is expected on Thursday, as indicated by soundings. 

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