Thursday Night - Overcast with rain. High: 40-44
Friday - Overcast with rain. High: 50-54
Friday Night - Cloudy. Low: 40-44
Saturday - Cloudy with rain. High: 55-58
Sunday - Sunny than cloud cover in the evening. High: 60-64
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Discussion:
Rain will move into the region over the evening hours due to a run off precipitation from a cold front to the south-southwest of the region. With this there will be temperatures in the mid 50's. Whilst there will be a bit of a break from the rain Friday evening, rain will begin again after the main front moves over the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. With the front rain will contiune into late Saturday evening / early Sunday morning. There will be some sun on Sunday, however a second cold front will move over the region late Sunday evening, bringing more clouds.
Rain will move into the region over the evening hours due to a run off precipitation from a cold front to the south-southwest of the region. With this there will be temperatures in the mid 50's. Whilst there will be a bit of a break from the rain Friday evening, rain will begin again after the main front moves over the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. With the front rain will contiune into late Saturday evening / early Sunday morning. There will be some sun on Sunday, however a second cold front will move over the region late Sunday evening, bringing more clouds.
Forecasters: Owens, Bongard
Issued: 5:00 p.m. ; October 24, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Currently, there is a front to the SSW of the region which is causing moisture to move over the area bringing in rain for Thursday night into Friday morning.
The main issue comes down to precip on Saturday. Currently, the HREF and SREF are showing that the PFJ is going to be breaking from the current long wave pattern and semi-isolating the low in north central Texas. While all the models are in agreement on this they do differ on what upper level dynamics will cause the low to move out of the southern Plains and into the region Saturday. The HREF and SREF are showing that there will be a small finger of the jet that is wrapped around the Texas low helping to kick this out and move this system to the east of the region by Saturday night. The NAM, however, is wanting to keep the low over Texas-Oklahoma slightly longer and move the front directly over the region due to a weaker jet feature. Regardless of where the front will move, there will be moisture and rain over the region. However, with the HREF/SREF there will be a max of 1.0 inch and for the NAM it will be 1.3-1.5 inch range.
The models are currently having the effects of the front moving downstream of central Missouri, over late Saturday evening / early Sunday morning. This will be in time for a second front to move over the region from the west-northwest late Sunday and provide additional rain on Monday.
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