Thursday, October 31, 2019

  Thursday - Morning Clouds, Afternoon Clearing. High: 36-40

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 25-29

Friday - Sunny and warmer. High: 51-55

Friday Night - Clear Skies. Low: 37-41

Saturday - Mostly Clear and Cooler. High: 40-44

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Temperatures today will be unseasonably cold as our rain/snow maker departs the Midwest. Morning cloud coverage will break out by mid day in central Missouri with clearing through the afternoon to evening hours. Thursday Night into Friday morning temperatures will drop into the mid 20's. Friday, skies will remain clear and winds will switch from the northwest to a more westerly direction, leading to a warming trend.  Saturday, will be mostly sunny with another cool down as winds shift back to the northwest and become gusty.
Forecasters: Gallahan, Pauley, Munley, Steward
Issued:  10:00 am; October 31,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

WPC prefers a non-NAM blend, we'll be using the GFS model along with SREF plumes for temperature forecasting.

Current conditions for this morning are overcast skies with temperatures in the upper 20s. These temperatures will rebound today but not by much as the gusty northwesterly flow ushers in the CAA. Overcast skies will eventually break up around 12pm today with subsidence working in behind the departed front as seen in the GFS 00Z forecast soundings. Clouds will continue to clear out this afternoon through this evening. Frigid temperatures are expected with radiational cooling this evening into tonight along with the CAA ushered in by the gusty northwesterly winds, so bundle up the goblins and ghouls.  Temperatures will rebound Friday as the trough moves off to the northeast, giving us zonal flow. Along with this, we will start to get veering winds at the surface indicating WAA. High temperatures will be nearly 15 degrees warmer than today. Clear skies Friday will also aid in our warming temperatures with radiational heating. Friday night a dry shortwave will turn our winds back out of the northwest, once again bringing in CAA with backing winds aloft, sticking with us through Saturday. This CAA will drop our high temperatures 10-12 degrees cooler than Friday. Skies will remain sunny on Saturday.

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