Tuesday, October 29, 2019


Tuesday - Cloudy  High: 42-46

 Tuesday Night - Rain showers Low: 32-36

Wednesday - Rain High: 36-40

Wednesday Night - Mixed precip. Low: 28-32

Thursday - AM mixed precip. PM decreasing clouds High: 34-38

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Temperatures will remain below seasonal values today as we will also have cloud cover throughout the day. The skies will remain cloudy into the evening hours and into overnight as we will have rain move into the area from the southwest. The rain will continue into Wednesday as the temperatures will also continue to remain below seasonal values. Wednesday night looks interesting however because we will continue to get rain, but the temperatures will continue to drop throughout the night. This drop in temperatures overnight will give us the possibility of mixed precipitation. A majority of the mixed precipitation will be freezing drizzle, however there is a potential to see some snowflakes on the backside of this system. The skies will begin to clear out into Thursday afternoon with our temperatures remaining below seasonal values.
Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  10:00 am; October 29,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

This morning the WPC recommends a general model blend for this forecast period so we'll utilize both the GFS nd NAM.  The question of the day is how much rain will we see in the coming days and is there the possibility of seeing any mixed precipitation or even snow.

Overcast skies this morning and 36 degrees with light winds out of the east/northeast. 

Currently the area is stuck between two cold fronts as well, a cold front to our southeast and a cold from to our northwest.  High pressure is located over central Kansas this morning, this high will not make it to us or really effect us here in Mid-Missouri.  An open wave low pressure system is currently over southern New Mexico and will be influencing weather in Mid-Missouri is the coming days.  Warm air advection is really dominant in all levels except between the surface to about 900mb.  Forecast soundings indicate low level cloud cover all day Tuesday, a possibility of a peak of sunshine is possible but unlikely.  Rain showers overnight tonight are expected and persist really through the morning hours on Wednesday.  Mid level forcing is dominant through Wednesday but moisture does decrease during the afternoon hours, so a break in the cold and miserable rain is expected Wednesday afternoon but is brief.  The previously mentioned low pressure system in New Mexico does move north and east during the day Wednesday into portions of southern Arkansas. 

The upper level low is expected to pass the area to the east of the state but do still feel the affects here in the forecast area.  Forecast soundings do initially start the area with a cold rain Wednesday in the early late afternoon hours.  As the sun begins to set and temperatures begin to cool down forecast soundings to hint at the potential for freezing drizzle to even a freezing rain is possible as temperatures aloft at 850mb are expected to be just above freezing but surface temperatures are anticipated to be at or just below freezing at this time with a saturated column from the surface to 820mb.  Ground temperatures are currently at 46 degrees and with that being said roadways aren't a concern for any freezing precipitation to stick but elevated surfaces and grassy surfaces could see minor accumulation.  As the upper level low passes to the east overnight Wednesday and temperatures continue to drop, the potential to see snow but is doubtful at this time for the forecast area though possible as the lack of moisture seems to be a potential issue, but again accumulations will be minor, grassy surfaces and elevated surfaces only.  Thursday as the system gets out here, clouds are anticipated to break up and some clearing skies is expected towards Thursday afternoon but cool and below average temperatures continue for the area as CAA dominates once the system passes 

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