Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday - Increasing Clouds. High: 68-72

Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Low: 58-62

Thursday - Cloudy. Rain. High: 75-79
Thursday Night - Cloudy.  60-64

Friday-  Clouds moving out.  High: 60-64

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Wednesday clouds will be increasing throughout the day with highs in the upper 60's and lower 70's. The clouds will continue into the night hours with highs in the upper 50's and lower 60's. For Thursday the clouds will remain with rain during the day, highs in the upper 70's. Thursday night will remain cloudy with highs in the lower 60's. For Friday a cold front will be moving through taking the clouds with it throughout the day, highs in the lower 60's.  This high on Friday night will be at midnight, with decreasing temperatures throughout the day.
Forecasters: Heaven, Munley, Savoy
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; October 9,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Current WPC guidance suggests a non-NAM blend for the forecast period, and as such the 06Z GFS will be used, along with the 03Z SREF. 

Wednesday will continue to see WAA over Columbia, bringing a warming trend between today and Thursday.  Temperatures are expected to climb the most tomorrow, as WAA will begin to ramp up late Wednesday.  Between the WAA and cloudy conditions expected, the low for Wednesday night is rather close to the expected high for the day.  Thursday will see our primary chance at rain in the forecast, with Skew-Ts indicating rain possible for most of the day.  PWAT values will hover between about 1.3-1.7in.  Not much in the way of strong convection is expected to occur throughout the day, however there is the possibility for a rumble of thunder or two.  Discrete structures are very unlikely to develop, given rather poor speed shear and caps on already low CAPE values in the 600-800J/kg range.  Not much rain is expected, with a quarter of an inch of rain likely on Thursday.   The high temperature on Thursday will be heavily influenced by WAA, which will ramp up quite a bit directly ahead of the cold front off to our west.  Friday night will see cold frontal passage, and with it comes strong CAA.  There is very poor agreement within the SREF of cold frontal passage timing, with about 24 hours worth of spread between all members.  This forecast has opted for the earlier frontal passage at midnight, which seems to be in good agreement among deterministic models(GFS, NAM).  The low temperature for Thursday night and high temperature for Friday are expected at the same time, which is exactly midnight.  While not directly in the forecast, current guidance suggests this CAA will be strong enough to bring the 540 thickness line within a county of Columbia during the day Friday.  While no precipitation is expected on Friday, temperatures are expected to drop all day, and become exceptionally cold by late Friday, with some SREF members indicating surface temperatures below freezing. 

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